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    The Indian moment in Turkish democracy
    Güven Sak, PhD 23 June 2018
    This Sunday, voting stations across Turkey are going to set up two ballot boxes: one to choose the president, the chief of the executive, and another to choose parliamentarians, who make up the legislature. Under the new system, a president does not need parliament to form his government, as parliament does not need the president to legislate. A highly likely scenario to come out of this Sunday’s vote is for the president to be elected in the second round and not to have a majority in the parliament. Twin elections will usher in a new era of coalition politics. I see this as the Indian moment of Turkish democracy. Let me explain. [More]
    What recent protests in Jordan mean
    Güven Sak, PhD 16 June 2018
    There were nationwide protests in Jordan recently. People were out on the streets against plans for a new law to broaden the tax base, as well as high oil prices. The result? As of June 5th, Jordan has a new government. Hani Mulki has gone and Omar Razzaz has come as the new prime minister. This is Jordan’s 6th government since the beginning of the Syrian civil war, which started in March 2011, mind you. Six governments in eight years. I think that is telling. Let me elaborate. [More]
    What’s the matter with the Turkish Lira?
    Güven Sak, PhD 09 June 2018
    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) surprised markets this week with a 125-basis point (bp) rate hike. The bank had already hiked the rate 300-bp two weeks ago. Can this move now boost the value of the Turkish lira against the dollar? I don’t think so. [More]
    Turkey, Argentina and that déja vu
    Güven Sak, PhD 02 June 2018
    Turkey and Argentina were like economic twins back in the 1980s. They shared many stories about the balance of payments, currency crises, and IMF conditionality. The twins diverged later with Turkey seemingly outperforming its twin. But recent events brought them back into the same fold, and this time, Argentina appears to be in a more advantageous position. Let me explain. [More]