Economic theory is shaken
Fatih Özatay, PhD
21 December 2009
The global crisis has innumerable adverse outcomes. One among these is that the settled economic theory was shaken harshly. Economists now even more frequently discuss how the science of economy can survive from this 'bad' situation. I wrote two commentaries on this issue at the end of August and at the beginning of November. And it is most likely that I will write more on this issue.
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Why is medium term inflation target high?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
20 December 2009
On December 10, Central Bank announced the monetary and exchange rate policy for 2010. Along with this, we also learned the inflation target for the following three years jointly set by the government and the Central Bank. Inflation targets for 2010, 2011, and 2012 are 6.5, 5.5, and 5 percent, respectively.
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Demand for platinum does surge even despite the crisis
Güven Sak, PhD
19 December 2009
According to a recent story in the British Financial Times, the answer for the statement above is quite simple: Because the number of weddings in China rises. Let us see why? If you wonder whether China will grow rapidly or did the crisis come to an end yet, please keep reading.
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Net errors and omissions and 2010 growth
Fatih Özatay, PhD
17 December 2009
A number of people argue that Turkey will grow by 3.5 to 5 percent in 2010. The lower threshold of this interval was defined by the Medium Term Program declared in September. To put it differently, analysts are more optimistic than the official estimates. In mid-November, I also provided a number of growth estimations and joined the group of optimistic analysts. Such analysis of mine estimated 3.8 to 3.9 percent growth for 2010.
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Will the Check Law slow down recovery?
Güven Sak, PhD
17 December 2009
Answer for the question above is affirmative. Let us see why. This is exactly a "the road to hell is paved with good intentions" situation. Attempts for a regulation with good intentions have the potential to generate adverse outcomes. I guess there are a number of clumsy moves the government has made since 2007. Some moves do not automatically give good results just because you have good intentions. Before trusting in God, you should sit and think how the issue will evolve. This is the moral of the study that must be stated from the beginning.
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Capacity utilization rate can be calculated more precisely
Fatih Özatay, PhD
14 December 2009
Data on capacity utilization ratio (CUR) announced for the last couple of months are quite surprising. It goes like this: CUR for a certain month is announced a month before the industrial production figures for that month is announced. As the declaration made in November suggests; CUR for October 2009 dropped by 4.9 points compared to the same period the year before. However, October industrial production for October, as announced last week, suggests that industrial production rose by 6.5 percent compared to the same period the year before.
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Why did the level of capacity utilization ratio surprise?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
13 December 2009
This week important indicators were announced. The most surprising one was October industrial production ratio. Rise in industrial production was inconsistent with the October capacity utilization ratio announced a month ago. Whereas industrial capacity utilization rate in October fell by 4.9 points compared to the same period last year, industrial production is announced to have increased by 6.5 percent also compared to the same period last year.
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What is Turkey’s goal in COP15?
Güven Sak, PhD
12 December 2009
Do you know what COP15 means? Fifteenth United Nations Climate Change conference is currently carried out in Copenhagen (COP15). The meeting focuses on two points: First is limiting the annual carbon emission rates caused by our current daily lives in order to make the beautiful blue planet of us habitable for a longer period. And second is, given that current life styles of human beings result in increasingly higher carbon emissions every year, deciding who will undertake the burden of our changing life styles and how. Will the meeting produce such decision? We believe not. In fact, on the way toward the Copenhagen Summit; there was a belief that an agreement to replace Kyoto Protocol would be reached. We are certain that to agreement will be reached and it is also apparent which directio
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How does fiscal policy raise interest rates?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
10 December 2009
I would like to apologize from all Greek people. By the way, I would like to convey the sorrow I feel to credit rating agencies. I have not been disclaimed this fast before! Okay, you will consider my warning and take necessary actions; but why is the rush for! Now how will I visit Greece I have not been to except some islands?
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Have you read the book “Financial Crises and Turkey”?
Güven Sak, PhD
10 December 2009
It would be good that you have. 2008 crisis that emerged in the United States of America as a financial crisis came to Turkey as a real sector crisis. The hurricane on the other end of the ocean reached our shores slowly. While we were wandering what that was and whispering "It will not necessarily hit is directly, it can also pass by Turkey" owing to our profound experience on watching crisis from a distance; we was caught by the storm. That storm was not similar to the crises we were used to. How were the crises we were used to? Where did the difference emerge from? Did we give the possible responses to the last crisis? What were those we could do but we failed to? What can we expect now? Answers to such questions can be found in Fatih Özatay's new book titled "Financial Crises and Turke
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