TEPAV Assesses Turkey’s Growth Performance: “Turkey is the second most successful of Europe, following Poland” The assessment of growth performance revealed that Turkey had been the 10th economy that witnessed the severest contraction in 2009, and the 5th most rapidly recovering economy in 2010.
ANKARA- TEPAV stated that among the 40 countries that were analyzed, Turkey demonstrated a phenomenal growth performance. Stressing that it is of significance that Turkey, which had been the 10th economy that witnessed the severest contraction in 2009, was the 5th most rapidly recovering economy in 2010, the note analysis maintained: "Turkey is the second most successful of Europe, following Poland."
TEPAV policy note titled "A Comparative Assessment of the Growth Figures" by Sarp Kalkan, Policy Analyst, Economic Studies, and Ayşegül Dinççağ, Research Associate, Economic Studies was published. The note analyzed the recovery in Turkey's production and exports within a comparative framework. Emphasizing that Turkey demonstrated an impressive growth performance compared to the other studied countries, the note said:
"It is of significance that Turkey, which had been the 10th economy that witnessed the severest contraction in 2009, was the 5th most rapidly recovering economy in 2010. This reiterates the key importance of the domestic market for Turkey's economy, as well as the improved ability to adapt.
East Asian countries such as China and India that ensured both high growth and export gains and Latin American countries that supply to the former were the most successful economies in the studied period. The weakest performance was demonstrated by the European countries that struggle with the debt crisis, and Russia and Canada. Among the European countries, two stroke attention with high growth rates. Following Poland, which did not diverge from the growth path throughout the crisis, Turkey was the second most successful economy of Europe. 45 percent of Turkey's exports go to countries that are in the weak growth-weak export performance (lower left) zone in the figure 1 implying that the profound effects of the crisis on those countries, as well as their inability to recover from the crisis, directly affect Turkey's export performance. Therefore, it is of great importance that Turkey managed to increase the production level by 7.1 percent compared to the pre-crisis period."
TEPAV's policy note stresses that the recovery of Turkey from the crisis was driven by domestic demand.
The note in this context expressed that Turkey ranked the 9th among 40 considering the recovery of production and the 33rd considering the recovery in exports. Maintaining that this caused a severe pressure on the current account deficit and other macroeconomic balances, the note concluded: "Should the Europe recovers from the crisis in the coming period, exports will make a positive contribution to Turkey's growth performance. Nevertheless, the ongoing debt crisis in Europe coupled with the political uncertainties in the Middle East, another major export market, pose risks against Turkey."
Source: TURKSTAT, WTO, EIU and TEPAV Calculations