Negative Trend in TEPE Continues TEPE stood at -2.4 in November 2011.

ANKARA-TEPE, which has been in the negatives since August 2011, stood in the negative zone also in November 2011. Expectations for the sales volume in the next three months remained constant while current business volume has deteriorated. Still, the gap between Turkey and the EU persists.

TEPE, which has been in the negatives since August 2011, did not break the trend in November 2011 and had the value -2.4. This implies a month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease by 1.3 points and 2.9 points, respectively.

The balance value of the expectations for the next three months stood at 12.2 in November 2011. 29.2 percent of TEPE survey participants expect an improvement in their business activities in the next three months while 32.4 percent expect a deterioration. This implies a 2.4-point increase compared to November 2010 and a 0.4 point decrease compared to October 2011.

The difference between the participants who declared a year-on-year improvement in business activities and who declared a year-on-year deterioration in business activities continues decreasing. 23.3 percent of the participants who declared a year-on-year improvement whereas 42.9 percent declared a deterioration in November 2011. Volume of business activities therefore decreased by 7.8 points compared to November 2010 and by 2.4 points compared to October 2011.

EU-27 Retail Confidence Index stood at -13.7 in November 2011, implying a 1.4-point month-on-month decrease and a 17.2-point year-on-year decrease. This is the third consecutive month the gap between Turkey and the EU has been maintained.

Concerning sub-sectors, electrical appliances, radio and television sector demonstrated the best performance in November 2011 compared to the same period last year, also becoming the only sector that showed an improvement compared to last year. This sector was followed by non-specialized stores and textiles, ready-made clothing and footwear sector, which despite a year-on-year deterioration, performed better than the average. Motor vehicles sector, food, beverages and tobacco products sector, and “others” sector performed worse than the average and demonstrated a year-on-year worsening of performance. Furniture, lighting equipment and household articles sector demonstrated the largest year-on-year decline.

Question-based examination of TEPE results reveal that compared to November 2010, expectations for sales in the next three months improved partially and expectations for sales prices improved considerably. On the other hand, business activities compared to previous three months and the previous year deteriorated remarkably. In November 2011, all expectations and other items demonstrated deterioration except Level of inventories compared to October 2011, expectations for orders placed with suppliers and employment in the next three months.