Retailers Optimistic About 2012 TEPE reached its highest in December 2011.

In December 2011, TEPE reached its highest since May 2008. Expectations for the orders placed with suppliers and for sales volume in the next three months increased whereas business volume decreased compared to the previous three months.

TEPE which had been in the negatives only in August and September since December 2010 reached a record high 5.4 in December 2011. This implies a month-on-month increase by 4.9 points and a year-on-year increase by 5.6 points.

The balance value of the expectations for the next three months stood at 24.6 in December 2011, the highest level after 25.4 achieved in February 2011. 30.9 percent of TEPE survey participants expect an improvement in their business activities in the next three months while 29 percent expect a deterioration. This implies a 8.3 point increase compared to December 2010 and a 10.4 point increase compared to November 2011.

In December 2011, level of business activities in comparison with the previous year stood below the series-record in January and February 2011, despite the surge after the slowdown in October and November. 22.7 percent of the participants declared a year-on-year improvement in business activities whereas 44.4 percent declared deterioration. Volume of business activities therefore decreased by 7 points compared to December 2010 and increased by 2.9 points compared to November 2011.

In December 2011, EU-27 Retail Confidence Index stood at -11 demonstrating a year-on-year increase by 2.7 points and a month-on-month decrease by 19.1 points. Turkey which has been outperforming the EU since the beginning of 2011 widened the gap to a new highest.

Concerning sub-sectors, “others” (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware, glassware, stationery etc.) sector showed the best performance in December 2011. This was followed by textiles, ready-made clothing and footwear sector. Non-specialized stores sector, Furniture, lighting equipment and household articles sector, motor vehicles sector, and food, beverages and tobacco products sector performed worse than the average, still rising compared to December 2010. Electrical appliances, radio and television was the only sector that dropped compared to 2010.

Question-based assessment of TEPE survey results reveals that compared to December 2010, expectations for the orders placed with suppliers, for sales volume and sales prices in the next three months increased remarkably. On the other hand, expectations for business volume compared to the previous three months, current level of inventory and expectations for the number of stores in the next three months decreased sharply. Compared to November 2011 also, level of business activities in comparison with the previous three months and expectations for the orders placed with suppliers, for sales volume and sales prices in the next three months increased considerably. Expectations for the number of stores in the next three months decreased month-on-month. Expectations for the level of employment increased both year-on-year and month-on month.