Evaluation Note/Leyla Karakaya Turkey Played its Hand Well in the Energy Game

"The agreements signed between Turkey and Russia following negotiations held on December 27-28 brought about two significant outcomes. First was Turkey’s nod to the construction of the South Stream Pipeline through its territorial waters. Given the agreement signed with Azerbaijan for the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline just a few days before that, it can be concluded that the pipeline race, in the middle of which Turkey seeks to assume a position, has gained entirely new dynamics. This, however, is the subject of another note.

The second component of the deal with Russia consisted of natural gas deliveries via the Western Line. The 6 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas that has been delivered for the past 25 years as per the agreement signed in 1986 was to be cut on January 1, 2012 upon the termination of the contract by BOTAŞ. The reasons for the termination of the contract, as stated by the Turkish side, included a price dispute, the accumulation of take-or-pay liabilities, and more pronouncedly, the goal to liberalize the energy market. Nevertheless, when Gazprom dragged its feet about concluding agreements with the private sector, natural gas deliveries destined for western Turkey faced peril..."