Retailers Long For Strong Business Performances TEPE hit the second lowest after June 2012, with a value of -6.5
ANKARA – The TEPAV Retail Confidence Index (TEPE) dropped both year-on-year and month-on-month in August 2012. Business volume compared to August 2011 is at its lowest in the last 29 months. Expectations on sales for the next three months stagnate. Retail confidence in the EU continues the downturn.
TEPE which has been standing in the negatives since January 2012 hit the second lowest after June 2012. With a value of -6.5, TEPE decreased month-on-month by 1 point and year-on-year by 2.2 points.
The balance value of the expectations for the next three months stood at 5.3 in August. 43.3 percent of TEPE survey participants expect an improvement in their business activities in the next three months while 26.3 percent expect a deterioration. This implies a 4.6-point decrease compared to August 2011 and a 1.3-point decrease compared to July 2012.
In August 2012, 21.3 percent of the participants declared a year-on-year improvement in business activities whereas 52.9 percent declared deterioration. Volume of business activities, therefore decreased by 17.2 points compared to August 2011 and by 5.5 points compared to July 2012. This was the lowest level since March 2010
The EU-27 Retail Confidence Index had a value of -13.5 in August 2012, implying a month-on-month decrease by 3.2 points and a year-on-year decrease by 2.8 points.
Comparing the retail confidence indices for the EU-27 countries and Turkey, year-on-year drops were observed in all EU countries excluding United Kingdom, Greece, Slovenia, Austria, Romania, Southern Cyprus, Latvia, and Sweden. The sharpest drops were experienced by Lithuania, Italy, Belgium, and Finland. Compared to July 2012, retail confidence decreased in all but Greece, Latvia, Sweden, France and Czech Republic.
The “others” sector (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware, glassware, stationery etc.) was the best-performer compared to August 2011 and the only rising sector in August 2012. The declines were lower than the average in the non-specialized stores sector and on average in the motor vehicles and food, beverages and tobacco products sectors. Textiles, ready-made clothing, and footwear sector, and furniture, lighting and household articles sectors declined more than the average. The sharpest drop compared to August 2011 was observed in the electrical appliances, radio, and television sector.
Question-based assessment of TEPE survey results reveal that compared to July 2012, expectations and current indicators deteriorated except the volume of inventories and expectations on the number of stores next year. The sharpest decline was in the volume of business activities compared to the past three months and to last year. Compared to August 2011, expectations and current indicators worsened but the expectations on the number of stores next year. The sharpest year-on-year drop was in the volume of business activities compared to the past three months and last year, and the expectations on the sales volume and sales prices in the next three months.
