Expectations in the Retail Sector Blossom alongside Spring With a value of minus 2 in March 2013, TEPE increased by 2 points month-on-month.

ANKARA – In March 2013, TEPE increased month-on-month but was stagnant compared to the same period in 2012. Expectations for the level of business activities compared to the previous three months and the year before, as well as those for orders, sales volume and sales prices in the next three months picked up. Expectations for the sales volume in the next three months recorded the highest level in the last 15-month period. Retail confidence in the EU decreased year-on-year and month-on-month.

With a value of minus 2 in March 2013, TEPE increased by 2 points month-on-month. The index was stagnant compared to March 2012.

53.7 percent of TEPE survey participants expect an improvement in their business activities in the next three months while 19.5 percent expect deterioration. The balance value of the expectations for the next three months stood at 15.5 in March 2013. This implies an increase by 2.8 points compared to March 2012 and by 5.4 points compared to February 2013. This marks the peak value of the last 15 months for sales expectations

In March 2013, the balance value of the volume of business activities compared to the same period in the previous year was -18.6. 22.3 percent of the participants declared a year-on-year improvement in business activities whereas 45.7 percent declared deterioration. Anticipation for year-on-year recovery in business activities therefore declined by 0.2 points compared to February 2013 and increased by 9 points compared to March 2012.

The EU-27 Retail Confidence Index had a value of minus 13.1 in March 2013, with a month-on-month decrease by 2.8 points and a year-on-year decrease by 1.9 points. The EU-27 performed better than the Eurozone compared to March 2013, while the overall figure was stronger for Eurozone. In the same period, Turkey performed better than the EU-27 and the Eurozone.

Comparing the retail confidence indices for EU-27 countries and Turkey, the highest year-on-year rises were observed in the UK and Greece and the sharpest drops in Finland, Austria and Estonia. Slovenia, Lithuania and Greece recorded the highest month-on-month improvement in retail confidence.

Compared to March 2012, motor vehicles sector had the strongest performance. It was followed by “the others” (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware, glassware, stationery etc) and furniture, lighting equipment and household articles sectors. All other sectors declined year-on-year, while the sharpest drop was in the food, beverages and tobacco products sector.

Question-based assessment of the TEPE survey results suggests that compared to February 2013, all conditions and expectations except for the volume of business activities compared to last year improved, with the largest improvement in the expectation for orders placed with suppliers and for sales over the next three months. Compared to March 2012, all indicators but expectations for employment in the next three months increased. The highest increase was in the volume of business activities compared to last year, the number of stores next year and the level of business activities in the next three months.

Konya’s retail sector at the peak of last 7 months

In the context of the Konya Province Retail Confidence Index (KOPE) carried out in cooperation by Konya Chamber of Commerce (KTO) and the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), face-to-face interviews with 300 retailers from Konya have been carried out on a monthly basis since February 2012.

In March 2013, KOPE had a value of 4.9, compared to TEPE at minus 1.1. Konya’s retail sector continued the upwards trend in 2013, performing better than both overall Turkey and the EU-27. KOPE showed a year-on-year increase by 2.2 points and a month-on-month increase by 0.4 points. The highest index value of the last seven months was recorded.

Expectations for sales in the next 3 months are still on the rise. Expectations for orders placed with suppliers and employment in the next three months improved in comparison to January 2013. On the other hand, 53 percent of retailers believe that the volume of business activities worsened compared to March 2012.