Business Activities Up, Expectations Stronger Than Last Year In August 2013, TEPE had a value of minus 0.1

ANKARA – In August 2013, TEPE decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year. Anticipation for business recovery improved compared to the last three months and previous year. Expectations for orders and sales in the next three months were stronger compared to 2012. Retail confidence continues its surge in the EU and Eurozone.

Following the rise in June and July, TEPE declined in August and had a value of 0.1. TEPE therefore decreased by 0.6 points month-on-month and increased by 6.2 points year-on-year.

Seasonally adjusted values for TEPE suggest that retail confidence between March and August 2013 was stronger than in the same period in 2012. The overall performance of the retail sector was better in 2013 compared to 2012.

The balance value of the expectations for the next three months activities in August 2013 compared to the same period in the previous year was minus 22.3. In August 2013, 49.8 percent of TEPE survey participants expected an improvement in business activities in the next three months whereas only 19.2 percent declared they expected a deterioration in business activities. Anticipation for year-on-year recovery in business activities therefore increased by 13.6 points compared to August 2012 and decreased by 5.4 points compared to July 2013.

The comparison of 2013 and 2012 on the basis of expectations with seasonally adjusted series reveals that expectations were stronger in March-August 2013 compared to 2012.

The balance value of the volume of business activities in August 2013 compared to the same period in the previous year was minus 23.5. Anticipation for year-on-year recovery in business activities therefore decreased by 5.2 points compared to July 2013 and by 10.8 points compared to August 2012.

The EU-27 Retail Confidence Index had a value of minus 2.9 in August 2013, with an increase of 4.3 points month-on-month and 10.4 points year-on-year. Turkey performed worse than the EU-27 and the Eurozone compared to 2012.

Comparing the retail confidence indices for the EU-27 and Turkey, the highest year-on-year increase in retail confidence was observed in the United Kingdom. Following the UK were Lithuania, Spain, Portugal, and Italy. The sharpest year-on-year decline was in Finland. The UK also marked the highest increase compared to the month before. The EU -27 performed better than the Eurozone.

Compared to August 2012, the electrical appliances, radio and televisions sector was the best performer. This was followed by furniture, lighting equipment and household articles; textiles, ready-made clothing, and footwear; and food, beverages and tobacco products sectors. Non-specialized stores and motor vehicles sectors performed worse than the average compared to August 2012. The others (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware, glassware, stationery etc) sector declined.

Question-based assessment of the TEPE survey results reveals that compared to July 2013, expectations for the level of business activities compared to the last 3 months and previous year and expectations for employment in the next 3 months increases. Other conditions and expectations declined. Compared to August 2012, all expectations and conditions improved except for the expectations for employment in the next 3 months and for the number of stores in the next 12 months. The highest improvement was in the expectations for orders placed with suppliers in the next 3 months.

Konya’s retail sector stronger than overall Turkey

In the context of the Konya Province Retail Confidence Index (KOPE) carried out in cooperation by Konya Chamber of Commerce (KTO) and the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), face-to-face interviews with 300 retailers from Konya have been carried out on a monthly basis since February 2012.

In August 2013, KOPE had a value of 6.0, compared to TEPE at 3.2. Overcoming the downwards trend since May, Konya’s retail sector picked up in August and performed better than Turkey and the EU-27. KOPE showed a year-on-year increase by 1.1 points, while TEPE increased by 6.1 points.

Expectations for orders placed with suppliers in the next 3 months increased while the expectations for sales decreased. The volume of business activities compared to last 3 months and the previous year increased month-on-month. 45 percent of retailers in Konya expect an improvement in business activities in the next three months while 48 percent declare that the volume of business activities worsened compared to August 2012.