Retail Confidence Stagnant TEPE improved by a weak 0.1 points month-on-month but declined by 15.4 points year-on-year

ANKARA - In November 2014, TEPE decreased year-on-year by 15.4 points despite a slight month-on-month recovery by 0.1. Sales expectations and anticipated business recovery declined both month-on-month and year-on-year. All retailing subsectors except motor vehicles performed worse than in November 2013. Retail confidence in the EU has been in decline for consecutive six months. Alike overall Turkey, retail sector is at standstill in Konya.

TEPE which had declined in September and October had a value of -15.5 in November. The Index improved by a weak 0.1 points month-on-month but declined by 15.4 points year-on-year. The drop was triggered by the weakening of the level of business activities compared to the past 3 months and sales expectations for the next 3 months.

Having turned down in September, the decline in sales expectations continued in November. The balance value of the expectations in the next 3 months was 6. Sales expectations for the next 3 months declined by 13.6 points compared to November 2013 and by 1.4 points compared to October 2014.

In November 2014, 23.5 percent of TEPE survey participants declared that they expected business activities to improve in the next 3 months while 45.9 percent expect business activities to decline. 30.5 percent of the participants do not expect business activities.

The balance value of the volume of business activities compared to the same month in the year before had a value of -43.6 in November 2014. Business volume compared to the year before decreased by 5.1 points compared to October 2014 and by 24.5 points compared to November 2013.

20.8 percent of TEPE survey participants declared an improvement in their business activities compared to the year before while 53.9 percent declared deterioration. 25.3 percent of the participants declared that business activities did not change compared to November 2013.

Compared to November 2014, all retail sectors except motor vehicles declined at a level above the average. Sectors in decline in ascending order were food, beverages and tobacco products, “others” (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware, glassware, stationery etc), furniture, lighting equipment, and household articles sectors, non-specialized stores, textiles, readymade clothing and footwear, and electrical appliances, radio, and televisions.

Question-based assessment of the TEPE survey results indicate that compared to November 2013, all indicators declined except “the current volume of inventories” and “expectation for the number of stores next year.”

The EU-28 retail confidence declined for the sixth consecutive month, and the Index had a value of -2.9 in November 2014. The Index therefore declined by 0.2 points month-on-month and increased by 2.7 points year-on-year. Turkey performed worse than the EU-28 and the Eurozone compared to October 2014 and November 2013 both. Turkey had the sharpest decline in retail confidence across EU-28.

Greece had the highest year-on-year improvement in retail confidence across the EU-28 in November. The country was followed by Slovenia, Hungary, and Croatia. The worst performers of Europe were Turkey, Finland, Bulgaria, Belgium, and Germany. The highest month-on-month improvement was in Slovenia. The EU-28 Retail Confidence Index was stronger than the Eurozone compared both to November 2013 and October 2014.

Retail confidence stagnant also in Konya

In the context of the Konya Province Retail Confidence Index (KOPE) carried out in cooperation by Konya Chamber of Commerce (KTO) and the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), face-to-face interviews with 300 retailers from Konya have been carried out on a monthly basis since February 2012.

In November, KOPE had a value of -3.6 compared to TEPE at -19.6. KOPE, which had gone down to negatives in September remained in the negatives in November. KOPE declined year-on-year by 1.2 points whereas TEPE declined by 15.9 points. Month-on-month, KOPE increased slightly by 0.2 points. Konya‘s retail sector outperformed Turkey and EU-28. The year-on-year decline was driven by the increase in the current volume of inventories and the decline in expectation for sales in the next 3 months.

Anticipated business recovery compared to past year decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year while expectations for sales prices and employment in the period ahead strengthened on both accounts.