Annemarie Kuhns, an Economist in the United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service Discussed Forecast Methods Used in Retail Food Price Inflation  

Ankara – An event titled “How United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forecasts Retail Food Price Inflation?” was held on November 7, 2018 at TEPAV premises with the participation of Annemarie Kuhns, an Economist in the United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. The event was moderated by Bozkurt Aran, Center Director of TEPAV’s Multilateral Trade Studies Center.

Academicians and representatives of the public institutions and organizations, non-governmental organizations, ant the private sector participated in the meeting, which focused on the different forecast methods for inflation in retail food prices. The meeting commenced with an opening speech by Bozkurt Aran in which His Excellency underlined the importance of agriculture for the Turkish economy and noted that Turkey is a net exporter of agricultural products.

The meeting continued with Annemarie's presentation where she outlined the importance of food prices in the economy, particularly with regards to its weight in consumer expenditures, and summarized the determinants of food prices within the value chain concept. Annemarie continued her presentation by explaining how retail food prices are forecasted.

Further in her speech, Annemarie reported that USDA forecast retail food price inflation by using four different forecast methods and summarized the indicators and specific forecasting processes based on these methods. Annemarie stated that they are constantly trying to improve these methods and added that these estimation methods are not science but more of an art form while ending her presentation.