Turkey is still on the edge of the known world
Güven Sak, PhD
10 June 2011
Turkey is still on the edge of the known world. It is not inside but outside civilization. I do not know where in the world Turkey established its system. When I look at it, I can't see it. In economic terms, what I see is that Turkey is still on the edge of the known world. It is not inside but outside civilization. Recently, an American friend described where Turkey stands in the eyes of the American business world. Let me take a departure from that point. "Countries can be grouped in two categories," he said. "Those the future of which we are sure while facing difficulty in understanding what they currently are trying to do," and "those the future of which we are not sure, and we face difficulty in understanding what they currently are trying to do." "Turkey," he said, "seems to be clo
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Why do global chains skip Turkey?
Güven Sak, PhD
07 June 2011
We should not expect an improvement in Turkish-American trade unless Turkey receives investments from the US. The global crisis did not skip Turkey; it made a hole in it and passed on. Those affected seriously still recall the pain. This is exactly why the votes of the ruling party fell below 40 percent in the local elections of 2009. Unlike the global crisis, however, the global value chains still skip Turkey. Countries, then, can be grouped in two categories: "those through which a global value chain passes" and "those through which a global value chain does not pass." Turkey is in the second group. It has weak relations with the world, which is bad. This should be fixed. Becoming a country through which a global value chain passes is harder than becoming a country through which a pipeli
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Unbelievable!
Güven Sak, PhD
03 June 2011
The challenge facing bookstores was not a new one, but I believe another nail in the coffin was struck by the iPad, the last invention of Apple. "Washington resembles Istanbul in summer and Ankara in winter," people say. But this summer in Washington DC, the capital of the United States of America, is a bit different. The weather is very hot and humid. You feel the urge to change your clothes after a fifteen minute walk. I had not been in the city for a year. This time I witnessed an unexpected change. I saw that the bookstores that I used to visit so often and had memorized the locations of were either closed or about to be closed. You eagerly walk, saying "Borders must be just next to the corner" and come up with an empty store. This is like the demolition of the temples of booklovers. I
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Europe is a matter of existence for Turkey
Güven Sak, PhD
31 May 2011
The extended crisis on the continent will structuralize Turkey's problem. Are you aware? A group of countries becomes distinguished from others when you examine the growth and foreign trade figures for the post-crisis era. The group is led by China and includes Brazil, Argentina and Peru. We already are familiar with the Chinese phenomenon, but what does a series of Latin American countries have to do on this list? Turkey lags behind Latin American countries by a narrow margin concerning its growth performance and by a long shot concerning its foreign trade performance. Why is that so? Let us take a look at it. Today let me underline some trends in foreign trade I have observed for those who are squeezed within meaningless political analysis.
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What does the public offering of Yandex has for Turkey?
Güven Sak, PhD
27 May 2011
Yandex's cofounder, Arkady Voloj, paved the way in Russia for earning wealth without relying on the state. The day before was a good day for Voloj, one of the cofounders of the Russian search engine, Yandex. Yandex is in a way the Google of Russia. The day before, Voloj learned that the total value of the company he had founded fourteen years ago was worth USD 8 billion. Yandex had raised USD 1.3 billion in public offering on on the NASDAQ stock market. The stocks were snapped up at a premium price at $25. Moreover, after the trading started, the stock price increased to $38 and the total value of the company surged to $13 billion. How can he not be happy? Let me draw a couple of lessons from this case. I believe the public offering of the Yandex is important. I also think that all prepar
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How will the eruption of the volcano in Iceland affect Nairobi?
Güven Sak, PhD
24 May 2011
The distance between them is approximately 9000 kilometers; but the eruption of a volcano in Iceland can affect the wages of agricultural workers in Nairobi. Last weekend the Grimsvotn volcano started to fling lava. Experts maintain that this was the largest eruption in 100 years. The Keflavik airport already has been closed on grounds that the ashes are dangerous for air traffic. Last year, the Eyjafjallajokull volcano, which I still do not know how to pronounce, erupted and the ash clouds spread South, shutting down a substantial part of the European air traffic. The British Guardian reported that Heathrow Airport in London might be affected by the end of the week. Then, it appears that the agricultural workers in Kenya will not be paid their wages.
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Where will this record high current account deficit drag Turkey?
Güven Sak, PhD
20 May 2011
We are about to arrive at the point where fund inflows towards Turkey will be influenced. After that point, there will be no turning back. I am frequently exposed to the above question nowadays. The answers to the question are diverse. On the one hand are those who say, "There is nothing to worry about. I will do some hocus-pocus and all the pain will go away." On the other hand are those who gaze sententiously with a slightly sarcastic attitude. Today let us analyze what actually will happen, and where this record high current account deficit will drag Turkey. Is it wise to be concerned? Let us proceed from the tail to the head: It is definitely wise to be concerned about the recent movements in the current account deficit. The most concrete evidence of this is the unprecedented monetary
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Turkey can bear a high current account deficit for some time more
Güven Sak, PhD
17 May 2011
The Arab revolts have paved the way for Turkey to become an investment base for the countries of the region. The Arab riots do not appear to have ended. The revolts are spreading in full flood. Meanwhile, they slightly change their character from country to country. Those in Tunisia and Egypt differed, in Libya revolts took a completely different character and the dynamics in Yemen and Bahrain resemble neither each other nor the rest of the countries. Concerning Turkey, there exist a series of short-term risks. I remember talking about oil prices and the commercial relations between Turkey and the countries of the region. I also am aware that I assessed the entire issue in the context of the alarmingly high current account deficit and said, "fasten your seatbelts, please!" But nowadays,
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Good for me!
Güven Sak, PhD
14 May 2011
Economic growth, which narrows the digital gap, also eliminates poverty. It used to be easier to categorize countries clearly. There were those that could use the Internet and those which could not. The digital gap used to be wider. The United Nations' (UN) Millennium Development Goals Report of 2008 helped us achieve a more dramatic ranking. Back then, 18 out of every 100 people in the world had access to the Internet. The ratio dropped approximately to 1 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa, which hosts the least developed countries in the world. One to eighteen is an impressive gap. Out of the 48 least developed countries of the world as given in the UN's list, 33 are in Sub-Saharan Africa. If you wonder what kind of a place that is, here it goes: in 2006, only 1 out of every 100 people had ac
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When you turn on TRT Arabic in search of a salve, you come up with an eggplant ragout recipe in Arabic.
Güven Sak, PhD
10 May 2011
Al Fatih and Hamas recently signed a memorandum of understanding on reconciliation in Cairo. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas had called Hamas for reconciliation. Hamas, which had been reluctant to do so before, accepted the offer this time. Today let me put the memorandum of understanding was signed in Cairo within context. I think this is a critical success for Abbas and Fayyad as well as for Egypt and is an important indicator for monitoring how the "Ihvan-i Muslimin," or the Muslim Brothers, in Egypt will engage in the region's politics. Why? Let me tell you why.
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