This time it is even more dangerous than you think
Güven Sak, PhD
21 December 2010
To succeed, the measures introduced by the two must be reinforced by policies to improve public savings. We have always loved danger. Just take a look at the history of Turkey's economy: the savings-investment imbalance has always been a prevalent phenomenon. The economy has grown beyond its means in any given period. Turkey's growth always has required net capital inflows. And in any given period the financing of this growth-beyond-means has been troubled and has given anxiety to us. And indeed this is what is happening now. From this perspective, yes, we have seen this movie before, but this is the first time we have watched the new version. I guess this is the message that the Central Bank also is trying to deliver nowadays. Since the world has entered this twilight zone life has become
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Turkey should not become like Iraq as it increases exports to Iraq
Güven Sak, PhD
17 December 2010
Turkey needs a process of comprehensive structural reforms in order to maintain competitiveness in European markets. Demand sets supply. The quality of import demand naturally affects the technical quality of the industrial production capacity. You are what you export. There is the risk that you turkey We should always keep this in mind when diversifying our export destinations. Turkey is in need of a smart industrial strategy particularly in the recent milieu. What does the recent milieu stand for? It stands for the times where shift of axis is observed in Turkey's exports, though temporarily. Let us see what the currently shaping industrial strategy implies in this regard.
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I advise you to invest in the Turkish Lira
Güven Sak, PhD
14 December 2010
Erdem Başçı talks about the comprehensive change in the monetary policy in line with the new normal. Recently I chatted with a Venezuelan friend who is a resident in the USA. At one point the conversation came to the appreciation of the Turkish lira. My friend told me, "Before I came here my broker called. He said that I should allocate some part of my portfolio to TL and Singapore dollar denominated investments. He said the TL offers great returns. And if the appetite for TL investments has spread to affect even small investors like me, you are done." I noted down his comments with keen interest. I had these comments in mind when I read the speech of Erdem Başçı, Vice Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey. So today let me underline some important points for those who are yet not aware th
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“It is not that we had Oxford in Sanliurfa but I preferred not to study there!”
Güven Sak, PhD
11 December 2010
Hüseyin Çelik, during his term as the Minister of Education, once said, "Wait for the next PISA results." I did: Nothing seems to have changed. The opportunities enjoyed by Chinese monkeys are much better than those we have here in Turkey. Then how can Turkish firms compete with Chinese firms under these circumstances? I personally think that this is the issue of the day. This is the exact issue on the agenda even though we pretend that it is not. The OECD PISA results should have disappointed all of us. Hüseyin Çelik, during his term as the Minister of Education, once said, "Wait for the next PISA results." And that day eventually came.
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This time I will not accuse Turkey’s government of incapacity.
Güven Sak, PhD
10 December 2010
The solution of the problem lies at the hands of the core countries of the European Union. Banks of those countries have to be recapitalized. They previously tortured the Greeks. Now they are doing the same to Ireland. Given the huge incapability of Europe with respect to economic policy, I will no longer accuse Turkey's government of incapacity, which in fact is correct. Nothing here is so bad, but it might have been worse. European presidents and prime ministers, predominantly Angela Merkel, miss no opportunity to make things worse. But why is that so? It is not a good idea trying to govern a country and even a continent relying solely upon public opinion surveys. It will shorten your horizon and downscale your targets. I guess this is what happens: the melting European Union project. An
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Julian Assange is not a bad guy
Güven Sak, PhD
07 December 2010
The impact of Wikileaks in Turkey seems to be limited for now. Turkey still has not entered the digital age. Julian Assange is the founder of WikiLeaks, which recently has been publicizing the confidential cables of American diplomats. I personally wait everyday for new leaks. It is just like Japanese cell phone novels; sort of cliffhangers. To be honest I believe that Julian Assange is not a bad guy as claimed. If Assange is a bad person, I really have difficulty in understanding how Angela Merkel can be good, for instance. Let me tell you how I feel.
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What has Wikileaks taught us?
Güven Sak, PhD
04 December 2010
Diplomatic cable leaks have been quite informative in some aspects. Today let me talk about the lessons I have learned from this incident. The first lesson is for Turkey. The Wikileaks-diplomatic cable leak is not a conspiracy organized exclusively against Turkey. I believe this is the first lesson to be extracted. I personally think that we make too much of ourselves. We think that the world turns only around us. Yet this is not the reality. At this point my favorite argument was "they have written even rumors." What else were they supposed to do? Should they have collected evidence and tested the reality before communicating it? You've got to be kidding!
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Did Mehmet Şimşek actually say that?
Güven Sak, PhD
03 December 2010
Wikileaks is evidence to the fact that character assassination has turned into a tool for public management.
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Nihat Ergün is right, Taner Yıldız is not.
Güven Sak, PhD
30 November 2010
Turkey does not have the chance to assume a 'wait-and-see' policy with respect to electic automobile technology. Do you follow the debates on renewable energy and electric automobiles? I personally find the arguments following one another quite interesting. Focusing on the debate of the last week, I think Nihat Ergün, Minister of Industry and Trade, rather than Taner Yıldız, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, is right. Turkey does not have the chance to assume a 'wait-and-see' policy with respect to new technologies. This 'wait, we will see what to do when the technology is sufficiently developed first' attitude reminds me how Turkey lost pace over the last decade.
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Will Cudi Mountain be opened for tourism?
Güven Sak, PhD
27 November 2010
Infrasturcure seems to be the most critical impediment to the development of the region. Let me continue sharing the impressions I got on the Mardin-Şırnak line with some quick notes. As you walk around in the Anatolia, you cannot avoid witnessing that the institutional and financial infrastructure of Turkey has greater difficulty day by day in bearing the ongoing transformation process. I think it is inevitable that the inventory of government debt securities (GDSs) will rise in the near future.
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