Exports, exchange rate and the Central Bank
17 June 2010
I was concerned about what Turkey can do to improve its export performance taking departure from the risk that the developments in the European Union affects Turkey's exports negatively. It will be wise to examine the monetary policy and exchange rate policy first being the tools that comes to mind first. As a result, I would like to address the steps that can be taken in the short term to begin with.
Future problems of Turkey’s exports
14 June 2010
Last week I participated into a meeting organized by the Undersecretariat of Foreign Trade. The theme of the meeting to be discussed by a limited number of bureaucrats, exporters and academics was how possible negative impacts of the depreciation of Euro on Turkey's exports can be prevented.
Recent developments in production and foreign fund utilization
13 June 2010
This week data on two important indicators were announced: industrial production index and balance of payments in April. So today I would like to evaluate the recent developments in these figures. I will start with the net foreign fund utilization ratios for banks and firms, which is the balance of payments item that concerns us the most in the global financial crisis process.
Are flying fish rare?
10 June 2010
I talked about this before, but not in detail. Last September a roundtable meeting organized by a Brussels based think tank and IMF was held with limited participation. IMF delivered two presentations on the domestic demand stimulating measures that should be implemented to tackle the global crisis. The Fund declared that it supports these measures. Also the Chief of IMF made an evaluation.
Need for a flying fish
07 June 2010
I believe it is obvious that if some countries have trade surpluses, some others should have trade deficits. Of course this statement might be wrong if the countries with trade surpluses secretly export goods and services to aliens. Nonetheless we can easily assume that such a transaction cannot be kept secret for long. In that case, foreign trade or current account surpluses will be one side of the coin while foreign trade or current account deficits should be the other side of the coin.
Hungary and the fiscal rule
06 June 2010
Things turned into an "entertainment" once again. A web page that gives instant notifications about the developments in the world markets (Bloomberg) is open as long as my computer is on. When I left my office for lunch on Friday things were looking fine in Europe. When I turned back to my office, I saw that the markets were heading down. Soon, US markets opened the day with severer negative developments. One of the fun parts is this:
As bells of trouble ring
03 June 2010
Signals for trouble are gaining ground. In this milieu it will be useful for us to learn lessons from the last two crises. Unfortunately if troubles gain more prevalence the lessons do not imply favorable outcomes for Turkey's economy. The lesson we should learn is hidden in the answer to this question: During the global crisis we performed worse in terms of production level and employment compared to the 2001 crisis though the economic conditions were more favorable before the former than the latter. Why?
Initial conditions are quite different
31 May 2010
Yesterday at this column the results of the comparisons for the two crises I have made until today were summarized. The comparisons focused on what happened during and after the each crisis. Today I would like to take a look at the initial conditions that prevailed before the two crises. It appears that I can make the final evaluation after a few more commentaries. For analyzing the initial conditions, I will take a look at the year 2000 for 2001 crisis and the year 2007 for the global crisis. I will also address the years 2001 and 2008 in order not to constrain the analysis with one year.
10 Percent: Easy come, easy go
27 May 2010
At the beginning of the week the press featured a statement by Honorable Prime Minister. The statement said that unemployment rate which stood at 14.5 percent in January and 14.4 percent in February might decrease to 10 percent in summer. Is this possible?
We are finally back on the real agenda
24 May 2010
The high level of unemployment in Turkey was one of the main issues Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Chairman of the Republican People's Party (CHP), highlighted in the historic Congress. This problem should in fact be at the top of the country's agenda. It appears that from now on it will become one of the key issues of debate on the political agenda, as well as it has to be.