Harms of globalization (2)
27 April 2009
Title of the column is 'harms of globalization' for the last two days. However, I believe that the benefits of globalization are more than its harms. Gradual increase of foreign trade between countries, articulation of supply chains and even the rise and mobility of financial capital flows...
Harms of globalization
26 April 2009
In 2000, ratio of Turkish exports to national incomes was around 10.4 percent. This rate gradually increased in upcoming years; for instance reached 15.2 percent in 2005 and 18 percent in 2008. I believe, in the face of this development, that we can conclude: In recent years, production level has become more sensitive to export level as compared to the past. Given the Latin American debt crisis that covered almost whole 1980 period, this is a highly favorable development. Between 1982 and 1989, majority of the Latin American countries become unable to pay their debts. Among the main characteristics of the countries facing problems in paying debts was that ratio of foreign debt to exports was quite high (mainly debts between governments, different from the present phenomenon). However, cou
Can things get worse?
23 April 2009
I know it is an unpleasant title to put at the National Sovereignty and Children's Day; however, current state of affairs validates this question. Here 'worse' refers to the possibility that the 2009 growth and unemployment realizations will be worse than the estimations I shared with you at this column.
Unemployment rate forecasts
20 April 2009
Recently unfavorable data are being announced one after another. At the top of these unfavorable developments was the unemployment figures announced Wednesday. New data are based on new population estimations. Unemployment data only for January 2008 and 2009 were announced and the situation is really desperate: Unemployment rate increased by 3.9 points than the last year. For now, the new record is 15.5 percent. If you regard non-agricultural employment, the rate rises to 19 percent.
An important future problem of Turkey
19 April 2009
Along with the intensification of the global crisis, i.e. around the beginning of fourth quarter of 2008, to negative developments frightened Turkey: Fall in exports and tightening of external funding facilities. The impact they are to make was obvious: lower production, higher unemployment rate.
Risk of negative growth as well in 2010
16 April 2009
A step in the right direction is taken after a significant delay. Forecasts about macroeconomic indicators were revised and a more realistic picture was presented. What would have happened if the forecasts were not changed as done before the elections? Announced figures are already unfavorable. However, in case of such insistence, as the question "Do they know what they are doing" will gain prevalence and the confidence in the administration will be further eroded, more unfavorable figures would have been realized.
Is the recovery starting?
13 April 2009
To begin with, I would like to refer to the dual distinction I made months ago: the real sector and potential developments in global financial markets. With 'real sector' I mainly refer to the growth rates of big world economies which receive as a significant portion of Turkish exports. Different than other crises Turkey created alone, we are in an environment where we cannot make exports. This is one of the major reasons behind the fall in production. Therefore, it is important whether or not the economies of countries we export to will start recovering.
Precondition of increasing production is to increase domestic demand
12 April 2009
The most interesting data announced last week was the data on automotive sector. Because the data announced was for the month where a significant tax cut was introduced. As you might remember, I was skeptic about the arguments about what this tax cut will enable (see the column on March 19). Because, 80 percent of the sector's production was exported and as they had nothing to do with exports, tax cut was related only with the 20 percent of production. On the other hand, more than fifty percent of the vehicles sold in domestic market were imported. The rate for automobiles was almost 70 percent. Under these circumstances, tax cut was expected principally to be in favor of imports while its impact on production will be highly limited.
Apart from what the Central Bank has done...
09 April 2009
The academic study I have been working on for a while has turned into an article and has been sent to relevant agencies. Before starting to work on another article, it is necessary to take a break for a couple of days to tidy up the worktables at work and at home, to file the articles and worksheets used, take a copy of the article and the computer program including the computations made during the study and of course to have a peace of mind. Because, the future work schedule is loaded. It is time to effectuate the project on writing a book about financial crises; a couple of old studies will be reorganized; new academic semester is starting and I will offer a course; and some of the topics of the researches at TEPAV must be seized. Moreover, I have to put Erdal and Gülbin into motion to c
Exchange rate and illegal use of electricity
06 April 2009
Last week, important figures were announced: We learned growth rate in 2008, temporary export figures and inflation rate for. Before that, confidence index figures were released. Moreover, we learned the loan figures regularly announced on a weekly basis. There are no positive developments except for inflation (core inflation) rate. Therefore, there is no news. Of course, these figures pertain to the 'past'.