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    The ostrich tactic did not work; the global crisis is now the crisis of Turkey

    Güven Sak, PhD03 March 2009 - Okunma Sayısı: 1342


    There are different ecoles of people. Nowadays we are familiar with the kind that makes unnecessary explanations. While the global crisis becomes the crisis of Turkey, they wonder around and talk. Then, they talk again. If you incline your ear to them, you see that they are also placing advertisements here and there. In all, they are talking with big words. However, once you listen to them, your information stock and the boundaries of your analysis ability do not expand; you do not get enlightened about what you have to do. Though the things they say do not ease your suffering; they keep on talking. Nowadays, my favorite is titled "private sector that made billions of dollars borrowing in foreign currency participates in the crisis lobbies to survive". This type of explanation is in particular observed in the "certain media organs". The messages try to imply that there does not exist a problem and everyone is pretending as there is a problem so that the uncalculated debt will be transferred to the state. This is a statement appropriate to be recorded in the "unnecessary explanations encyclopedia".

    What do unnecessary explanation and unnecessary explanations encyclopedia mean? Unnecessary explanation is like a recommendation that provides no benefit to the receiver. If you think "why am I listening to this and wasting time" while listening to an explanation, that certainly is an unnecessary explanation. There is an anecdote right about this issue. On a spring day, a group of people gets on a balloon to have a short excursion. Then, a harsh wind comes out. Our group loses the control of the balloon and scatter around. Time goes, wind stops and the balloon calms down somewhere. Everyone is happy, but there is a problem: they do not know where they are. The ones hung in the air look around to find out where they are. Then, they see someone approaching on the road and ask "where are we?" The man standing the road looks up and says "you are ten meters above the ground". One out of the group above says "I guess you are a consultant". The man on the road amazedly looks and says "how did you know?" The group member above responds in exasperation "The thing you say is a hundred percent true; but it does not useful at all." As such, the explanation "you are ten meters above the ground" is an unnecessary explanation in that context. Though it is true, it is not useful at all.

    Recently, Turkey became a country surrounded by unnecessary explanations. Everyone is releasing unnecessary explanations depending on their political disposition. A part of these explanations are published in the "some minority media organs" while the rest is published in the "certain media organs". And it is a bad thing that individual media organs make publications stating completely opposing views. It is even worse that the economical crisis is evaluated differently by different eyes. Why is it bad? It is bad because it limits the ability to maneuver in a time where the mentioned ability shall be improved. Providing excuses for those desperately seeking to find one is harming the country.

    Let us go back to the "unnecessary explanation" issue. What was the explanation? That the private sector that made billions of dollars borrowing in foreign currency participates in the crisis lobbies to survive. That there does not exist a problem and everyone is pretending as there is a problem so that the uncalculated debt will be transferred to the state. Now, let us pretend to be the Prime Minister of Turkey. Even we assume that the explanation reflects what is going on; we still need a plan aiming at the corporate sector. First, there exist high amounts of debts in foreign currency. Any problem in this context will accelerate the contraction of the economy and significantly increase unemployment. Second, the mentioned debt stock increased during the term of the current government as a result of the incentives the current government had provided.

    Now, please imagine the picture: Can the corporate sector pursue the plans made in 2008 in 2009? Can companies that made a payment plan based on its performance in 2008 comply with those plans?  No, they cannot. So, what will they do? They first set back payments and then bankrupt. What happens if they bankrupt? Their employees become unemployed. In this context, what happens if state intervenes by reconstructing and deferring payment plans? By means of the payment plans extended over time, the corporate sector gains the ability to consider new conditions and re-ensure cash balance. This is the third point. But, should the burden necessarily be transferred to the state? No; this is another issue related to the design of the support mechanism. Shifting the burden on the shoulder of the state is not a requirement. And this is the fourth point.

    Then, why do unnecessary explanations spread around? This has to do with the negligence spreading around in a period where the global crisis became the crisis of Turkey; and this negligence is completely wrong. The global crisis is now completely the crisis of Turkey; and this is the fifth point.


    This commentary was published in Referans daily on 03.03.2009