A factor which facilitated structural economic growth in Turkey is  about to fade out or it will soon fade out.

In 1961, the year I was born, approximately 32 percent of Turkey's population lived in urban areas. Back then, urban areas were not as crowded as today. Today I am almost fifty years old and 70 percent of Turkey's population live in urban areas. We have surpassed Italy with respect to urban population. Have you ever thought what this could imply? What Turkey needs is a wiser economic policy management. Let me explain why.

Assuming that the productivity of industrial workers in urban areas is 100, productivity of agricultural workers in rural areas is 27. In services sector, productivity per employee is 95 percent. These are the figures official TURKSTAT (Turkish Statistical Institute) data indicates. Now let us simplify the issue a little bit: Productivity per worker in rural areas is one fourth of that in urban areas. The conclusion to be reached here is, ongoing migration from rural to urban areas in Turkey has and has been automatically improving the productivity and value added per worker. What does this imply? A person migrating from rural to urban automatically increases the growth rate of Turkey just because he/she migrated and found a higher-value-added job, if possible. Therefore, the ongoing dynamic migration from rural to urban over the last five decades must definitely be considered as one of the facilitators of 5 percent average growth rate achieved. This is the first point to note when assessing Turkey's economic growth.

When you look at rural to urban immigration, what you see might be lives in urban areas getting harder. You might tend to stress the significance of the absorption capacity of urban areas. You can even support measures to obstruct migration from rural to urban areas. And you are indeed right to some extent. Nonetheless, the picture presents one undisputable fact: Turkey can grow automatically thanks to the ongoing migration from rural to urban areas. This is among the structural grounds of the miracle.

The second point to revive regarding rural to urban migration goes as follows: Turkey has caught Italy in urbanization rate. The share of urban population in total population is 70 percent in both Italy and Turkey. The ratio for Spain is around 75 percent; but it has been historically higher in Spain than in Turkey. Urbanization ratio in Turkey has surpassed that in Korea - 60% - as well as in Greece. Turkey, failing to converge to these countries in terms of per capita income has overtaken them in urbanization ratio. Then, how must we read this? I believe this should be the approach: A factor which facilitated structural economic growth in Turkey is  about to fade out or it will soon fade out. Turkey will no longer enjoy the advantage of automatic growth enabled by rural to urban immigrants finding higher value added jobs in urban areas. Migration from rural to urban areas will not automatically bring about growth. If we have reached the limits of urbanization, automatic growth period has come to an end, then. This fact should be regarded when thinking on a growth strategy for Turkey for 2011.

Growth can be enabled now by increasing the productivity of urban workers. There still is a way out. It is just more impracticable.

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 26.10.2010