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    Fatih Özatay, PhD12 July 2009 - Okunma Sayısı: 1074

     

    On Friday capacity utilization rates for June were announced. The figure indicates a lower capacity utilization rate than the same period last year. However, it is necessary to express that there can be observed a recovery in the rate of deterioration. If we assess it by quarters; capacity utilization rate has fallen by 11.2 percent compared to fourth quarter of 2008. The said rate is recorded as 16.1 and 12.2 percent in the first and the second quarter of the year, respectively. And in June, the rate has dropped to 9.6 percent. In this context, this highly unfavorable figure contains a favorable aspect.

    This is the current state of affairs; so do we have any data announced for the future? Among important indicators of growth rate in particular in the current crisis period is exports. Therefore, export data shall be monitored constantly. Exports have decreased by 33 percent in June compared to same month last year and the downward trend continues as temporary figures for the first none days of July suggests: Exports have dropped by 25 percent than the same month last year.

    Another important variable giving clues about the future is domestic credit volume. There is no change considering the trend in this regard in recent months: Level of consumer loans go up gradually. Consumer loan stock is 3.5 percent higher than the beginning of the year. Given that rate of inflation for the mentioned period is lower; this 3.5 percent rise implies a real increase. This can be observed since the beginning of May. Considering bank groups, the point I have referred to at the beginning of July still applies: Rise in level of credits is not observed in all bank groups: The steep rise in consumer loans extended by public banks continue since the beginning of February. Level of consumer loans extended by public banks is 11.2 percent higher than the beginning of the year. Over the same period level of consumer loans extended by private banks has dropped by 2.2 percent while that extended by foreign-capital banks have risen by 1.3 percent. In brief, real increase is driven solely by public banks.

    As credit market is evaluated as a whole, it is not possible to detect a trend similar to that in consumer loans: Yes; downward trend in total credit volume has stopped, but there is no upward movement either for weeks. When the level of credit stock is compared with that at the beginning of the year a 2 percent decrease is observed. On the other hand, asymmetrical development of consumer loans among bank groups applies here as well though not with the same intensity.

    The Assembly passed a law important in terms of limiting the danger of rising non-performing loan rate by restructuring credits that bear the risk of becoming non-performing; and supporting banks extending new credits to come extent: Provision of Treasury guarantee to existing institutions or institutions to be newly established in relation to credit guarantee system become a law. Small and medium sized enterprises will benefit from this facility. However when I was writing this article on 10th July, the credit guarantee system had not yet been implemented.

    And about the global risk perception... When compared with the level at the beginning of 2007, it is higher now. However it shows a marked downward trend since the peak October 2008, though the fall is interrupted from time to time. The index calculating perceived risk was around 12 at the beginning of 2007; it peaked at 80 in October 2008 and now fluctuates around 30.

     

    This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 12.07.2009

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