We still deal with virtual issues
Today let us continue with the unemployment issue, which was explained to be virtual not structural, by Mr. Erdogan, the Honorable Prime Minister of Turkey. What do you remember about the part we have seen so far? First, we said "Turkey's most vital problem is unemployment"; and it still is. Second we argued "unemployment is a structural problem" and it still is. Now let us state the third point: unemployment is directly related with the education system of Turkey: unemployment rate rise among middle-aged people with weak education background. So, this problem is nothing but structural. This is what figures tell us. Then, is Mr. Erdogan wrong? Yes he is. He speaks politically. Sometimes what figures tell and what the politics require might not match up with each other as such. Therefore, we still deal with virtual issues.
The Table below gives the percentage composition of unemployed people by age and education level. The overview of Turkey's unemployed population is as follows: 36 percent of the unemployed is 25 years old or above and graduated from elementary school or less. Tertiary school graduates constitute only 13 percent of the unemployed population. As the table clearly suggests, there is a problem about having no profession. And this problem mainly affects the middle aged. This is the first point to state.
Table 1. Composition of unemployed population by age and education level, 2009
|
Illiterate |
Literate but not graduate |
5-year primary school |
8-year primary school |
Elementary school or equivalent vocational school |
Standard high school |
Vocational high school |
University |
TOTAL |
|
|
15 - 24 |
0.5% |
2.4% |
1.6% |
11.1% |
0.8% |
6.6% |
4.9% |
4.5% |
32.4% |
|
25 - 34 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
12.0% |
0.2% |
4.5% |
5.2% |
4.4% |
6.5% |
34.1% |
|
35 - 44 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
11.2% |
0.1% |
2.6% |
1.6% |
1.3% |
1.4% |
19.7% |
|
45 - 54 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
6.4% |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.8% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
10.5% |
|
55 + |
0.4% |
0.2% |
1.7% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
3.1% |
|
TOTAL |
2.5% |
5.1% |
32.9% |
11.4% |
9.1% |
14.3% |
11.3% |
13.2% |
100.0% |
Source: TURKSTAT, TEPAV calculations
The second point is that, the number of unemployed people over 25 years and has an 8-year primary school degree or less is 1.3 million. And these are not virtual people; they are as normal as we are. On the other hand, the number of people who participated in vocational trainings is only 167 thousand for 2009. This is a high figure compared to the past and reflects the keen efforts of relevant institutions, primarily the Ministry of Labor and İŞKUR (Turkish Employment Organization). However, among the unemployment population in need of skill transformation, only a small group had the change to benefit from the training programs. What does this imply? It implies that Turkey does not have a reorientation program that targets the middle aged people who lost their jobs. And the existing programs are too limited in scope and fail to serve the purpose.
So, what does this outlook tell you? It tells you that there exists a structural problem. People have been losing their jobs. Skill set of the labor force fail to meet the demands of the age. The state does not have an efficient active labor market policy framework that will help the unemployment people find a job. And the existing ones do not target the middle aged. Therefore Turkey should immediately launch programs that will furnish the middle aged unemployed with new skills and enable them learn their lives. Unemployment among young population, which also existed eight years ago, is a problem related with the education system. But unemployment among middle aged population can only be eliminated with well devised and creative active employment policies.
Young unemployed population corresponds almost to the total employment in a small-size European country. Middle aged unemployment population is equal almost to the employment in a medium-sized European country. The number of discouraged workers equals to total employment in a large European country. Therefore the unemployment problem of Turkey is highly structural.
Let us give the third point as a question: How else can the Honorable Prime Minister of Turkey respond to this situation? What else but "this is virtual" can he say in the eighth year in power?
This is the situation.
This commentary was published in Referans daily on 13.04.2010
