Recent geopolitical developments—including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, mounting strains in transatlantic relations, and the growing instability across the Middle East—have revived debates about Turkey’s strategic importance for the European Union. Many observers argue that these developments have strengthened Ankara’s position vis-à-vis Brussels, particularly in the fields of security, defence, connectivity, and migration management.

Such assessments have fueled expectations of a new phase in EU–Turkey relations. Some analysts have even suggested that geopolitical realities may eventually outweigh concerns over Turkey’s democratic backsliding, allowing the EU to adopt a more flexible approach towards enlargement. According to this line of thinking, the European Union now needs Turkey more than Turkey needs the European Union.

Several factors are frequently cited to support this argument. Turkey’s geographical proximity and industrial capacity make it an attractive partner for the EU’s efforts to diversify supply chains. Developments in the South Caucasus and growing European interest in connectivity with Armenia and Central Asia have further increased Turkey’s strategic relevance. At the same time, Turkey’s military capabilities and expanding defence industry have gained prominence amid concerns over Russia, instability in the Middle East, and uncertainties surrounding the future of transatlantic security arrangements. Moreover, migration pressures and the EU’s ambition to emerge as a genuine geopolitical actor have reinforced perceptions of Turkey’s importance.

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