It would not be misleading to claim that the European Union (EU) has been experiencing the most challenging period since its establishment. Yes, the EU has faced various crises in the past; the "empty chair" crisis, the constitutional crisis, the financial crisis. However, during all these crises periods, the United States (US) has always been behind or alongside the EU. Today, despite various efforts, the EU finds itself without the protective umbrella of the US at a time when it is most in need of it due to Russia's aggression, particularly in the area of defense and security where it is still unfortunately the weakest.

In fact, this danger was acknowledged years ago. It would be remembered that on November 7, 2019, during his first term, French President Emmanuel Macron highlighted in a piece he wrote for The Economist that NATO had become "brain dead" due to Trump's view on transatlantic relations and he constantly emphasized the necessity for the EU to achieve "strategic autonomy" in terms of security and foreign policy. Following the election of Joe Biden in 2020 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the EU responded more swiftly, firmly, and in a united fashion to the internal and external crises than it had in any previous instances, which led to a revitalized and strengthened transatlantic alliance, causing these discussions to be forgotten.

Today, however, we are witnessing the opposite situation. The world and transatlantic relations have been undergoing significant transformation. Since it became apparent that Donald Trump could take office again, there have been various discussions in the EU about being prepared against potential policies that could harm it, yet no concrete steps have been taken; rather, only cosmetic measures have been implemented. Although a defense strategy was prepared in March 2024 and a member responsible for defense was appointed to the new European Commission, the EU unfortunately has not yet been able to develop a full fledged independent security policy. On the other hand, very recently the EU managed to adopt a €150 billion financial instrument (Security Action for Europe – SAFE) that will support those member states that wish to invest in defence industrial production through common procurement.  SAFE is part of a broader €800 billion vision to rebuild Europe’s defense capabilities by 2030 and reassess its reliance on NATO. It has the potential to sow the seeds of a joint policy design to develop its weak defense industry infrastructure, however at this stage it would not be wrong to say that the EU has still been taking baby steps to establish a security and defense capacity that could replace the collective defense capabilities provided by NATO.

You may read evaluation note from here.