The United States has launched a new wave of global tariffs, targeting over 20 countries with duties as high as 50%, and threatening additional “secondary tariffs” of 100% on nations importing energy from Russia—among them Türkiye, China, India, and Brazil. These moves, justified on political and national security grounds, are accelerating the breakdown of multilateral trade rules and deepening global economic uncertainty.

The latest measures follow a brief “Liberation Day” tariff pause and are set to take full effect on August 1. Countries receiving tariff letters include both close allies and vulnerable developing states. Türkiye appears on a U.S. watchlist for secondary tariffs due to ongoing purchases of Russian oil, alongside other BRICS members and Global South partners.

At the same time, the U.S. economy is showing signs of serious strain. The average effective tariff rate has surged to 18.7%, the highest since the Great Depression. According to Yale’s Budget Lab, this could lead to a $110 billion GDP loss in 2025. U.S. households are projected to lose an average of $2,367 annually due to higher import costs—an aggregate $300 billion hit that outweighs the expected gains from tariff revenue.

Rather than reducing the U.S. trade deficit, the tariffs are destabilizing trade flows. Some countries, like Indonesia and Thailand, have offered zero tariffs on U.S. goods to avoid harsher penalties—sacrificing long-term development goals for short-term concessions. ASEAN unity is also being undermined, as the U.S. plays regional partners against each other in a “beggar-thy-neighbour” strategy.

China has emerged as the strongest critic of the measures, urging WTO members to unite against U.S. violations of fundamental trade principles such as Most-Favoured Nation treatment and Special and Differential Treatment for developing countries. However, other major players—especially the EU and India—remain divided or silent.

With the WTO’s dispute settlement system effectively paralyzed, there are few checks on U.S. actions. Unless a coordinated response emerges—potentially led by China, the EU, and BRICS—the global economy faces the real risk of recession and systemic collapse of the rules-based trading system.

The contraction of the U.S. economy and the threat of secondary tariffs on countries importing Russian energy pose a dual challenge for Türkiye. A slowdown in U.S. consumption is likely to weaken demand for Turkish goods, particularly in key sectors like textiles and machinery. Simultaneously, Türkiye’s heavy dependence on Russian energy imports exposes it to potential the U.S. secondary tariff – around 100% – which could raise export costs and create uncertainty for Turkish firms operating in both U.S. and Russian-linked supply chains.

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