Global Trade is once again back at the top of the global geopolitical and geoeconomic agenda as it was around a quarter century back when the WTO Ministerial meetings broke down in Seattle and Cancun in quick succession in 1999 and 2003 and the 2001 WTO Doha Trade Round stalled and did not really take off.

This time, the crisis and potential trade wars have been triggered by President Trump’s “Liberation Day” April 2 tariffs, their pause and reinstatement and increase from August 7.

The paper begins by discussing the often misunderstood or simplistically understood relationship and causality between trade and trade liberalization policy, economic growth and human development.

It then traces US attempts to reassert its declining global economic hegemony after World War II first through the Nixon Shock of 1971 which brought about deregulation and financial globalization and now the Trump shock, which in many ways, seeks to turn back many of the consequences of the Nixon Shock through its  attempt to de-globalize the world economy and retreat behind high tariff barriers.

The paper explores how the Trump Shock is likely to impact on the U.S. trade deficit, economic growth, employment and inflation and asks the question: is the economic history of what exacerbated the Great Depression of almost a century ago in danger of being repeated?

It looks at how the Trumpian tariff war has and is being resisted by China, Canada and Brazil and calls for united resistance to the U.S.’ open violations of key WTO principles and agreements by its other WTOs member states in that  global multilateral trade forum.

Finally, it looks at how the current Trump 2.0 tariff war is already impacting and likely to further impact two significant Asian countries: India and Vietnam.

You may read working paper from here.