Certain things cannot be tackled by yelling
Güven Sak, PhD
12 May 2009
We are violently angry at banks. Mr. Rifat Hisarcıklıoğlu, President of Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges (TOBB), has been angry at them. Recently, Honorable Prime Minister of Republic of Turkey also started to express his anger for banks. Life is hard for banks. Have you noticed that, in fact we are angry at banks just because they act like banks? Nowadays, we request banks not to act like banks. But they continue acting like banks. Then, is it possible to change the behavior patterns of banks? Of course it is possible. To do this, it is necessary to take public measures that will change the meaning of acting "like a bank". Today, let us first touch upon the existing structural problems. Then, let us explain how the government can change the behavioral patterns of banks by impleme
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We continue to not like economists
Güven Sak, PhD
09 May 2009
Last weekend, we began with saying “no one likes economists”. Please let us continue with this topic this week. There is nothing changed: we also continue to not like economists this week.
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Medium run perspective of Turkey is the EU
Güven Sak, PhD
07 May 2009
What did we underline a while ago? We underlined that the crisis periods are the periods of "saving the day". Crises periods were not time for heroic actions for those who undertook the responsibility of managing a company. There was no need to beat a dead horse or be embarrassed. The important thing was to watch out each step you take than making long-term plans. It would be wise to take one step at a time. Then, what does this 'medium run perspective' put in the title with big fonts mean? Does it have any meaning? Let us see.
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IMF now stands by the poor
Güven Sak, PhD
05 May 2009
Global financial crisis is opening out the door of a process of transformation. Those that fail to acknowledge the transformation cannot manage it. What was the motto? Either we will manage the crisis or it will manage us. Either we will try to perceive and manipulate the global transformation dynamics or the transformation process initiated by the global crisis will eventually change us regardless of our desire. Either we will benefit from the transformed aspect and better control the cost of the crisis, or the crisis will thrust through us while we sit and wonder what goes on. We believe that what goes around in the world is not closely monitored in Turkey. For instance, that the IMF is currently working on a social conditionality geared to protect the poor from the impacts of the crisis
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No one likes economists
Güven Sak, PhD
02 May 2009
Trends in the United States of America (USA) indicate that people hate bankers the most. In the list of the most hated, corporate managers, executive board managers and CEO's rank the second. This phenomenon is in particular valid for publicly held companies. In the list, economists in general rank the third. The issue now occupies articles. There is a certain truth: No one likes economists.
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How can export expectations get better while our share in the European Union market shrinks?
Güven Sak, PhD
30 April 2009
As you might remember, last Tuesday, we started asking "What is the problem in expectations surveys?" There observed something strange. Rate of those whose expectation for "export orders over the next three months" was recovering increased steeply. Expectations got better; however, over the same period annual growth forecasts for our basic export markets were revised downwards. As the question on export orders was a part of real sector confidence index, we changed the question as follows: "Is it possible that market actors while passing through lands, whose roadmap is not known, fail to decide how to formulate their expectations? Do expectations surveys reflect confusion?"Today, let us continue with the same topic.
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How can you expect an increase in export orders given that German economy is contracting?
Güven Sak, PhD
28 April 2009
It appears that there is a problem. Don't you think so? Recently, 2009 growth expectations are revised downward for each of our export markets. However, business tendency survey announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) reveals that "expectations for export orders over the next three months" ensures rapid recovery after sinking to the lowest level in November 2008. The number of those expecting an increase in export orders over the next three months is 14 percent higher than that of those expecting a fall. As a result, real sector confidence index goes up. How can this be assessed? What is going on? Can this be the green shoot we have been waiting for?
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Did markets start to revive?
Güven Sak, PhD
23 April 2009
Did the markets start to revive? Do not you also notice dynamism at the markets? Recently we have been frequently hearing narratives that business activities are rallying. If you wonder what is going on, please keep reading.
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Pre-accession Economic Program (PEP) is not the expected exit strategy
Güven Sak, PhD
21 April 2009
This is how the mankind is; it starts to search for a 'green shoot' in the middle of the wreckage. Remember the life-at-out-blue-planet movies after post-atomic bomb cold war period. People left the shelters and walked around in demolished cities. There shined green shoots over steel skeletons of ruined giant buildings. And the life began again. All disaster movies ended with the birth of a glimmer of hope. This is the main feature of the mankind: We are specie that can be hopeful about the future. Hope gives us breath of life in the least expected time. This is good and necessary. The energy necessary to deal with the crisis is already hidden in our genes. Hope is necessary though is not sufficient. A manmade crisis can only be tackled with a manmade exit strategy. Seeds of hope that has
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State Minister Mr. Mehmet Şimşek is not completely wrong
Güven Sak, PhD
16 April 2009
When will the Turkish economy step on the recovery path? When will liquidity start to circulate in the market? Can recovery start alone? This is the issue we must focus on as the Turkish government officially acknowledged the crisis and announced that measures will be implemented. The statement made by State Minister Mr. Mehmet Şimşek that "households and the banking sector are doing well and the condition of the corporate sector is not bad at all" must be paid regard to and assessed. We used to emphasize that because of the crisis, the corporate sector was in bad shape. (Remember the story titled "I am currently feeling what the figures will tell you two months from now.) Last week, we said "if the corporate sector of a country is not doing well, banking sector of that country cannot be d
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