Calculations suggest that Turkey can possibly have a bigger economy.

Honorable Prime Minister of Turkey Abdullah Gul said in his trip to London "It would not be surprising if we start talking about BRIC plus T."  BRIC is the acronym referring to Brazil, Russia, India and China which rose in the eyes of investors. And in that respect, T stands for Turkey. Newsweek magazine, in the last issue, made a short story on this issue and underlined that President Gul's statement reflected not the existing power of the Turkish economy but the geopolitical ambitions of Turkey. When bringing this argument up, the magazine also talked down on Turkey saying "Turkey's GDP is only half of Russia's; the poorest BRIC nation."  And this reminded me of the 'which size is it' issue I started to talk about the week before. Today let us continue from where we stopped and get down to the point: Is it possible for Turkey to become the tenth biggest economy of the world? The answer would be, yes. However this cannot be done with empty talks. Turkey needs a political approach that deals with the future rather than the past as well as an assertive reformation process.

'I was there'

Currently Turkey is the seventeenth biggest economy of the world. The country ranked worse in 1980. Ozal's reforms have improved Turkey's position from twenty fifth to sixteenth place. However we stick there. Newsweek's argument is correct. Russia, the twelfth biggest economy of the world has a GDP of US$1.2 trillion. And Turkey's GDP is half of Russia's. Remember the comparison I have put forth the week before. For instance, we are talking about guiding other countries, but our total GDP is not more than U.S. defense and foreign affairs budget. One thing this implies is that there is a long way to go.

But is it possible as occasionally claimed that Turkey's economy becomes the tenth biggest economy of the world? Mr. Rifat Hisarcıklıoğlu, President of Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB) has recently expressed how this could be possible. Honorable Prime Minister of Turkey, Mr. Erdoğan was also at the hall listening to him. So was I; I was there too. Should productivity per hour could be improved up to Germany's; Turkey's economy can threefold the current level of GDP. According to the analysis of TEPAV economists; it Turkey can achieve the level of productivity in Germany; Turkey's GDP would increase from US$600 billion to US$1.8 trillion. This way Turkey's economy would be bigger than Russia's and the Newsweek magazine could not underline that Turkey's GDP is less than Russia's; the poorest BRIC nation. In the meanwhile Turkey becomes the eighth biggest economy of the world as a result.

What does the calculation suggest?

But please do not immediately start thinking 'If she had wheels, my aunt would be a locomotive'. Please listen to me first. This calculation suggests that Turkey can possibly have a bigger economy. And ensuring productivity gains is the main way to do this. Turkey can make a great leap becoming the tenth biggest economy of the world through qualitative transformation, not quantitative growth. This is exactly what 'if productivity per employee rises to the level in Germany' refers to. And the EU accession process is strictly related to the said transformation. Turkey's EU transformation still is invigorating and topical for Turkey. By the way, have you watched Industry Minister Nihat Ergün's U.S. trip where he also visited the Silicon Valley? Honorable Minister has given the correct messages with regard to the steps to be taken to make Turkey the tenth biggest economy of the world. Let's hope the best. I will revisit this topic soon.

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 19.11.2010