We are on the bottom rung yet. I believe that the developments in Egypt will affect Turkey, too.

Unprecedented movements have been observed in both Tunisia and Egypt. Opinions claiming that "Turkey is the model country now" really amuse me. I am not of that opinion. I believe that Egypt will be a role model not only for Turkey, but for the entire world. Let me tell you why. 

What has been the determinant trend of the last two decades?

If you asked me what the determinant trend of the last two decades has been, I would say with no hesitation "technological change." The economic, social and political repercussions of the technological change used to appear in the long term in the past. This had three important causes. First was that the diffusion of technology was time dependant. Second, it was the parents that first adjusted to the new technology. Third, the adjustment of a small group of elites to the new technology was sufficient. But these do not apply to the age of information technology.

First, information technology spreads at an incomparable pace. The development of India as a powerful software base is related closely to China's role in the manufacturing of iPhone hardware. Second, this is the first technology to which children are able to adjust before their parents. A technology that children can keep up with more rapidly than their parents implies that the windows of change will be wide open throughout the entire world. Third, access to technology and getting to know about the developments in the world are no longer a privilege enjoyed by a group of elites. This is the main trend that determines our entire life today. Now let me derive three broad conclusions.

At the current stage, our civilization is in the process of changing the model of integration into the globalization process. The essence of change is the capacity that is emerging in developing countries in this process. In this atmosphere, talking about "Turkey as a model country" is to be unaware of the recent developments. Second, the leadership of change is no longer held by the elites. For instance, Nelson Mandela, the leader that changed the South Africa, had an elite inheritance. He graduated from Fort Hare University in South Africa. His classmates were Robert Mugabe from Zimbabwe, Julius Nyerere from Tanzania, Seretse Khama from Botswana, and Kenneth Kaunda from Zambia. All of them became leaders of their nations and led wars of independence. In the past it was a privilege enjoyed only by the elite to see how the world was and to learn what the norms were. Now this privilege is available to the masses now. Those who guided the process in Tunisia and Egypt are those benefiting from the fruits of globalization. 

Mubarak's resignation is only the beginning

The third point goes like this: Mubarak's resignation is only the beginning in Egypt. Nothing has been concluded yet. Political movements, including that of the Ihvan-I Muslimin, are coming up from behind. After the formation of the new government in Tunisia, a delegation went to visit and asked whether they could meet with the Minister of Foreign Affairs. The ministerial official hosting the delegation replied, "No, because he spoke incoherently the other day , we do not allow him in the Ministry." The minister in question resigned this weekend.

The Iranian administration put Mousavi under arrest before the demonstrations. But you do not need to have a leader to whistle. That stage is yet to come.

Let us not be incorrect. We are still at the whistling stage. It will take time for the new normal to fall into place. I expect that the developments in Egypt will affect Turkey as well.

Let me repeat: "Indeed, only the wise get advice."

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 15.02.2011