Why are we the only ones who witness such developments?
Egypt was the eighth best performing country among the 135 countries. Turkey is the twenty-fifth.
Which countries have demonstrated the best performance with respect to human development over the last 4 decades? I had skipped this until I came across an article on Dani Rodrik's web site yesterday. Then I read the 2010 Human Development Report (HDR). Hang on to your hat: six out of ten countries that have ensured the most rapid improvement in the life standards of their citizens over the last four decades are Arab countries: Oman, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria. If you wonder what is it that has thrown off-balance the entire geography from Tunisia to Egypt and than to Libya, Yemen, Jordan, Palestine and finally Iran, you can now stop doing so. What has shaken those countries is their administrations. As administrations invest in human capital, citizens with broader sets of skills decide to complete the missing parts of the puzzle on their own. If they had known, the administrations of the geography definitely would have ceased investing in human, indeed. As I continue to follow the developments, my confidence in the fact that those who read the developments from the perspective that argues, "The Americans play tricks to trigger a coup d'état through the army," are the ones who have faith in the insight of the public only when their votes are for them is reinforced. Let me tell you why it is only we who witness such developments.
The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) has published the HDR every year since 1990. According to the human development indicator, living a 'humane life' refers to living in a society composed of individuals who have a life expectancy close to the financial norms in which one can enjoy the possibility of a sufficient per capita income, and improve the set of skills in line with the global norms relying on a sufficient level of education. In the recent period the race to this end has been led by the Arab countries. Let me derive three conclusions in this regard.
First, if you wonder whether Egypt is on the list, over the last three decades under Husnu Mobarek's role, Egypt was the eighth best performing country among the 135 countries studied. It may be true that Mobarek made a big haul during his thirty-year of rule, but Egypt performs even better than Turkey. Just like Tunisia. Turkey is the twenty-fifth best performing country across the total 135 over the last three decades. This is the first point to state.
The second point: I have to stress that the analysis of the performance of countries over the last three decades is highly sensitive to the initial conditions. But the said initial conditions do not show a significant deviation in the case for Turkey and the Arab countries. We are in the same league, so a comparison for the last four decades also would be reliable. Turkey is the seventeenth biggest economy of the world. Then how does Turkey perform in terms of human development? Turkey ranks the 83rd. Tunisia ranks the 81st, Egypt 101st and Iran 70th. This is shameful for Turkey. In what aspect is Turkey different, then? When one has time, awkward ideas present themselves in the mind. Maybe Husnu Mobarak siphoned off less than the Turkish administrators so that Egypt was able to make larger advances in terms of human development. Is there a market value like that about which Ertuğrul Özkök wrote the day before? How could I know!
For the third point, I believe that as countries invest rapidly in humans, the citizens with broader sets of skills decide to complete the missing parts of the puzzle on their own. This is what lies at the heart of the current quest for democracy. Since globalization is turning the world into a small village, Egypt has found the opportunity to imitate the student's opposition movement Otpor that overthrew Milosevic in Serbia. Please take a look at Erhan Türbedar's note on TEPAV's web site.
This would be my recommendation to Mr. Hamaney and Ahmedinejad: Stop education and hospital investments immediately!
This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 18.02.2011
