The risk of a nuclear disaster caused by the earthquake, if not the earthquake in itself, have shaken the core the belief that nuclear energy is "very safe."

The Japanese earthquake has shaken up our attitude towards nuclear energy. It can only be the instant confusion that  allows anyone to think that nothing will change with respect to nuclear energy after the earthquake. Those views certainly will ­evolve. Then, the existing plans will be postponed. After this point, no one can say "we will build a nuclear power plant in your neighborhood" without asking the residents. In fact, they should not. This is only the first impact of the Japanese earthquake on Turkey. Today let me emphasize why we are one step closer to the green revolution.

We are faced with a green revolution in two ways. First, we are on the brink of a new era during which the way of green energy and clean energy firms will be paved. Why? As a result of the earthquake, twenty percent of the nuclear energy production capacity of Japan has ­been deactivated directly. The future of the rest of the capacity is disputable. We are witnessing a new claim every day. We hear news about the radiation leaks every minute. After the developments in Japan, Germany first declared,  "we have no problem," and then ceased the operations of a series of old reactors. Italy has announced that it will not be installing any new nuclear power plants. Workers in the Toyota factory in the US have stated that they do not want to work with the parts imported from Japan on the grounds that they could be radioactive. What happens in the ultimate phase? Nuclear energy stops being an option for the world. Do not pay attention to the recent declarations in Turkey; this will be the case here as well. Who would commend the health of people to a technology that she/he cannot control? No one would undertake such a responsibility.

So, what will happen in the short term? The dependence on fossil fuel will increase to meet the energy demand. The nuclear disaster has the potential to push up oil prices similar to the risk posed by the chaos in our neighborhood. Oil prices will tend to move upwards. However, the magnitude of this movement will be determined by the sequel of the production and value chain based in Japan. Should the radiation leak affect the demand for Japanese products negatively, the growth rate of Japan as well as of other countries in which affiliated firms are based can be affected negatively. Then, the upwards movement in oil prices would be slower. We can only wait and see. The upwards trend in oil prices creates an opportunity to develop newer and cleaner energy technologies. The green revolution ahead will be driven by green technology firms and electric car producer firms. Michael Douglas, who has grown quite old, in the role of Gordon Gekko, said: "green technology firms will bring the new financial crisis." We are one step closer to that day.

The second dimension of the green revolution is related to the political arena. Last weekend elections were held in Baden- Württemberg, a southwestern state of Germany. The party of the President Merkel was in power in the state's capital Stuttgart in 1953. Not anymore. The Green Party's candidate has become the state premier of the region, which is known to be conservative and dominated by the business world. The Green Party increased its votes from 12 percent to 24 percent. The Christian Democrats lost almost half of their 44 percent of total votes. The concerns about nuclear energy were reflected in the election results. This is what the local experts suggest.

The risk of a nuclear disaster caused by the earthquake, if not the earthquake in itself, have shaken the core the belief that nuclear energy is "very safe." Now there is a greater possibility to see a nuclear energy-free new normal.

Let me also stress that the Japanese earthquake will affect Turkey's current account deficit and the method of deficit finance negatively.

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 29.03.2011