While we are dealing with the Kurdish opening or the knee-deep scandals about the university placement exam, the world around us is changing at the speed of light.

The center of gravity of the world's economy shifts continuously. It is near Izmir these days. But, wait, it will shift to Diyarbakır by 2016. The economic center of attraction of the world is not shifting towards Turkey because something is happening here; and when it settles in Turkey, it will not be because of something unique to Turkey. While we are dealing with the Kurdish opening or the knee-deep scandals about the university placement exam, the world around us is changing at the speed of light. But we keep on listening to fairy tales. Today, I want to start my commentary by saying that the economic crisis in the European Union is Turkey's crisis. Of course, for those willing to see.

In 1980, the focus of the world economy was on the North Atlantic. The two sides of this ocean were the production and the consumption bases of the world. In 2050, the center of attraction will move towards the western edge of China, to Eastern Turkistan, Urumqi. With this perspective, in eighty years, the world's economic center of attraction will shift by 9,300 kilometers. 9,300 kilometers is one and a half times the radius of the world. Change is taking place rapidly. And Turkey's administrators are playing out a pleasant scene from the fairy tale Sleeping Beauty.

To be honest, we started the race before everyone else. Turkey took the first steps of economic liberalization in 1980, almost before anyone else did. In 1980, the amount of Turkey's exports was at US$ 3 billion. The volume reached US$ 36 billion in 2002 and to US$ 132 billion in 2008. In 1980 the share of industrial products in exports was 10 percent; now this share has increased to 90 percent. In fact, per capita income as a ratio to the per capita income of the US increased from 22 percent in 1980 to 26 percent. No significant convergence has taken place, but the economy has grown. Until today.

Today, the crisis facing the European Union countries is affecting Turkey's economy both structurally and negatively. If the crisis continues, I am afraid we will sigh for the sea although we are in the middle of it. We will turn into a country that produces in the middle of the world's economic center of attraction. We will never break this middle income trap. Let me explain what I mean.

In my consideration, the crisis in the European Union countries affects Turkey severely in three domains. What are these? I addressed the first one a couple of days ago. Since the beginning of the crisis in Greece, fund flows towards Turkey have increased. The savings surplus that was unveiled with the crisis in Europe has been flowing towards Turkey. This has caused a Viagra effect on Turkey's economy. This performance, however, is not sustainable without the crisis in Europe, that is, without the "pill." This distracts Turkey, which actually has to think through how domestic savings can be increased. That is the first point.

And the second one: Due to the crisis in the European Union, the demand for Turkey's exports has diminished. We are heading towards the east to offset the loss in the European market. That is, we leave a market that demands more sophisticated products and head to one that demands relatively primitive products. If the crisis in Europe prevails, Turkey will become one of the countries that produces what a number of other countries also produce. This leaves us with an average-quality production infrastructure. On the other hand, countries with high per capita income can produce unique products. "In the Iraqi market, Turkey's biggest rival is Iranian industrial goods." It sounds like a joke, but it is a fact.

The third point: As Turkey's trade activities heads to the east due to the crisis in Europe, the method of foreign exchange generation becomes riskier. The risk shouldered by the corporate sector is increased.

The crisis in Europe is a source of global imbalance for Turkey. What else should I do to get this across, beat a drum?

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 08.04.2011