If there is no building inspection, there is no rule. If the building inspections are not made property, sanctions cannot be imposed.

Recently the New York Times published a commentary by Nassim Taleb on risk management. The subject of the commentary was the management of risks accumulated in the financial system because of banks. It was a current issue. The commentary was published on the first day of Bayram. The second Van earthquake had not taken place yet. After the second earthquake, which had taken place the day before, I had wanted to write my views on how to manage the earthquake risk in a country located on seismic belts. And here I go. This commentary was inspired by risk management techniques. If you are curious, please read on.

Managing earthquake risk is not as difficult as sending a rocket into space. The first legislation on how to manage this risk emerged in this geography almost four thousand years ago. There is a paragraph in the Code of Hammurabi, King of Babylon, “If a builder builds a house for someone, and does not construct it properly, and the house which he built falls in and kills its owner, then that builder shall be put to death.”  It is crystal clear. The only way to secure the building construction rules is to define a severe sanction to be applicable in the emergence of disasters. A rule is applicable only as much as the sanction is applicable. But, is this the only problem in Turkey? No. In terms of risk management, the earthquake issue in Turkey can be assessed in three aspects: definition of risk, management of risk and measures to implement when the risk is realized. The first one is straightforward: you cannot lower the risk of an earthquake no matter what measures you take.

You can take measures, however, to limit the damage to be caused by a possible earthquake.  It is not a luxury but a necessity to construct buildings in line with the earthquake standards. Here the extra cost of construction will in a way correspond to risk premium. But making sure that your house is earthquake resistant is not enough. If the building next to your house collapses and crushes yours, the risk premium you have paid will have been in vain. Here lies the meaning of the issuance of construction permits and building inspections by the public sector. Take the current case, for example: before the second earthquake in Van, buildings supposedly were inspected and the hotels which are now ruined were certified to be “habitable.” If there is no building inspection, there is no rule. If the building inspections are not made property, sanctions cannot be imposed. If so, rules become inapplicable. This is what Turkey’s problem is.

The story is not over. The second way to limit the damage caused by an earthquake is to organize the emergency activities properly. The efficiency of the emergency aid system is one of the most critical factors for limiting the damage caused by earthquakes. Here the principal issue is to devise a plan on how to ensure emergency coordination between local, national and international authorities.  I believe that Turkey has failed this class, too. The second important point is to devise a financial plan based on an insurance mechanism that will immediately remedy the damage and allow a return to normal. However, it is well known that since 1999, Turkey has not made any progress in this respect, either.  If the only formula we are able to come up with to inch life back to normal is to say, “The Mass Housing Administration will build new houses immediately,” then Turkey has made no progress since Grand Vizier Sokullu Mehmet, who after losing the Ottoman fleet at the Battle of Lepanto, said, “this is such a [powerful] state that if it wishes, it would have no difficulty in making rigging from silk and cutting the sails from satin.” The trick here is not to lose the fleet in the first place. It is a pity.

In my consideration, Turkey has been at square one since I999. What Istanbul needs is to get prepared for an earthquake, not a channel.

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 11.11.2011