We are stuck in mediocrity because Bursa, Gaziantep and Diyarbakir were undersized and Istanbul has grown huge.

Do you once in a while avoid the unfruitful and highly political agenda of the county and take a look around you? Please do that. Every time I look around, I start thinking that Turkey will never make it to the twenty-first century. Turkey has a nineteenth century agenda to deal with in the twenty-first century. But it not only has failed to make any progress in solving them, it also faces the risk of missing the twenty-first century. I believe that the question in the title is the primary issue with which Turkey has to deal at this point in time. Have you ever thought that Turkey’s key problem, including the nineteenth century problems with which we are currently struggling, might be associated with Bursa being stunted? This is what I think. Let me tell you why.

The Istanbul Chamber of Industry invited Paul Romer of Stanford University to this year’s Industrial Congress.  I do not remember reading favorable reactions in Turkish to his remarks. But he made some very important points. The below table gives the points I remember from his presentation. Houston, the sixth largest city in the US, is one-third the size of New York, the most crowded city. In Turkey, however, the sixth largest city, Gaziantep, is only one-tenth of the most populous Istanbul. The same applies for Bursa and Diyarbakir.  The figures show that Diyarbakir does not suffer from a unique problem that stems from the “colonial administration.”

In fact, it is not that Bursa, Gaziantep or Diyarbakir are undersized; it is that Istanbul has grown huge. Why is that so? The reason is quite simple: the other places were not considered or designed as cities. It is because we do not know what urbanization means for economic development and we do not like planning. It is because administrations do not think even for five minutes about regional development.

Now, please think: To how many of the largest ten cities of Turkey could you travel by plane ten years ago? Very few of them. I was born and grew up in Bursa. Flying from Bursa to Istanbul was a rare event. Flying from Bursa to Ankara was not possible until recently. The table below shows the population of the largest cities in Turkey and in the US in proportion to the most populous city of the country. In how many are there direct international flights? I remember a friend who was offered a job in Ankara several times saying a couple of years ago, “Ankara is a village. A settlement where there are no direct international flights is called a village. I cannot live there. It would be a complete waste of time.” I give him his due every day. OK, how many of these cities have a railway passing through? Not all of them. How many of the railway systems can carry container trains? Even fewer.

Please, tell me, can you retain people with skills in the so-called cities located on the edge of the world? Can you transport your products efficiently to the rest of the world? Can such cities grow? Cities which are dependent on other cities cannot grow. You cannot attract skilled labor that will deepen the industry. Then, can you build an infrastructure for innovation in these cities? No, you cannot. You can pretend you do, but you cannot fulfill the goal.

We were stuck in mediocrity and we have become gossipers because Bursa, Gaziantep and Diyarbakir are undersized and Istanbul has grown huge. This is why the dreams of the prime minister Erdoğan about Turkey are limited to Istanbul growing even bigger. The absence of urban economists in Turkey is closely associated with this. The capacity of universities is limited to Istanbul. If you do not believe me, watch a news program or a historical show on television and then we can talk.

TABLE:  Proportion of the Population of Largest 10 Cities to That of the Most Populous City, Turkey and the US (%)

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 06.01.2012