Nigeria and Turkey are in the second group due to the lack of organizational capacity.

The Hrant Dink trial has ended. The verdict has proven that, during the last decade, there has been no change to the state in Turkey. That Ankara’s subway is no better than Lagos’ subway, when considering the number of stations, is also closely related to the fact that there has been no structural change to the state. Let me tell you why.

Nowadays, the Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathan is in trouble. He is the first Nigerian president to have been democratically elected. He has recently attempted to once again break new ground by removing Nigeria’s oil subsidies. Trade unions were alarmed and people called for subsidies to be reinstated. In fact, his attempt to extend state support to the poorest parts of society was blocked by the same people he was trying to help.

When reading about this, I thought, “If the Turkish government attempted to tax the urban rent enjoyed only by a few, it would receive the same reaction.” It is not without reason that Lagos, the former capital of Nigeria, and Ankara compete in having the shortest subway routes. Indeed, Turkey is in a way similar to Nigeria. Reasons for the lack of a successful tax administration and a well established subway system are the same.

First, let me share some facts about Nigeria: Nigeria is an oil producing country. Domestic oil and gas prices are low. The annual cost of subsidizing oil and gas is around US$ 8 billion. Mr. Jonathan wanted to extend state support, which does not reach the poorest parts of society and is transferred abroad, generally, through wholesalers. He attempted to design a new mechanism that would transfer the wealth of Nigeria to Nigerians via the state apparatus. The prerequisite for this was to remove state subsidies on oil that provided large returns to few people. As a result of this intervention, the price of gas increased from 40 cents to 90 cents. The country rallied as a response, creating chaos everywhere. Mr. Jonathan then cut gas prices to 60 cents. The president managed to reduce subsidies, albeit with damaged popularity among the people. The country has yet to calm down.

Why? This might confuse you at first. However, this is in no way strange. Nigerians hit the streets due to their deep-rooted belief that their state would not do any good. They assumed that, “A subsidy is a subsidy, poorly devised or not.” They thought a bird in the hand worth two in the bush. Now  the Turkish case.

Have you ever considered what mistrust in the state costs? Please think. The Lagos subway, constructed in 1980, has remained as primitive as it is today due to aforementioned mistrust and the underlying perception of corruption. It is the same in the case of Ankara’s subway (depicted below). What if the municipality of Ankara cut coal assistance as a way of financing subway construction? The mayor would probably be overthrown.

Yes, Nigeria is an oil producing country. Turkey and Nigeria have nothing in common in this regard. The Nigerian people do not believe that the reallocation of oil subsidies will help them because they do not trust the government. Just as we do not believe that any tax imposed on urban rent will have a return for us. People have learned to care only about the money in their pocket as they thought a bird in the hand worth two in the bush. The conclusion to draw from this is that Nigeria does not have the capability to generate public wealth from its resources. In this regard, Nigeria is similar to Turkey.

There are two types of countries: Those with and those without a high organizational capability.  Korea, for instance, is in the first group. This is why the Seoul subway carries 2.2 billion people a year and has 328 stations. Nigeria and Turkey are in the second group. Ankara’s subway only has 22 stations.

Have you ever thought about how fruitful it would be to have a subway system in the city? I recommend the latest commentary by the TEPAV economist Esen Çağlar on subways. Poor subway systems in Turkey’s large cities certainly affect its female labor force participation.

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 20.01.2012