We all have learned the hard way that the number of Tahrir Square residents was quite small compared to Egypt's of 82 million.

Last night I passed by Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt, the epicenter of the Revolution of January 25^th that overthrew Hosni Mobarak. However, the Square that had looked gigantic on television and that had intoxicated me in 2011 looked very small this time. We all have learned the hard way that the number of people in Tahrir Square was quite small compared to Egypt's overall population of 82 million.

Of course, Tahrir Square is not the biggest square in the world. Merdeka Square in Indonesia’s capitol Jakarta is approximately 1 million square meters. Tahrir Square is about 74,000 square meters, twice the size of Istanbul’s Taksim Square of 36,000 square meters. Indeed, it is not actually small; it just seems as if it is. I felt the same when I first saw Moscow’s Red Square up close. It is 23,000 square meters. But it seemed like it was bigger during the glorious days of the Soviet Union. It looked like it was more able. Just as did Tahrir Square in 2011. It appears that a square looks almighty and magical as long as it is filled with hope. Now it is like hopes have sunk and we are left with an ordinary square.

In one of the exciting days of 2011, I wrote fancy sentences like, “there are two types of countries in our region: the ones that require demonstrations in their Tahrir Squares to initiate change and the ones that can use the ballot box for the same purpose…” Let me correct my statement: Tahrir Square does not change anything per se. It just moves the ballot box in front of the voters. As the ballot box comes, the true colors of the people come into sight. And all the excitement fades away. So here is the deal: In May, Egypt carried out the first phase of its presidential election. The Muslim Brotherhood's presidential candidate, Mohammed Morsi, won 25 percent of the votes. The great surprise was Hosni Mobarak’s last prime minister, retired general Ahmad Shafiq, lost by hair with 24 percent of the votes. Voter turnout was less than 50 percent. Now the second phase is due. It is kind of a deadly dilemma for the Tahrir Square residents. On the one hand is Morsi, whose possible inclination is unknown, and on the other hand is Shafiq, the remainder of the old political power. The most romantic of all are sort of surrounded with the feeling, “Why did we do the revolution in the first place?” The part of revolution marked with aspirations ended long ago. This is the first reason.

If you ask me, Egyptians are concerned a bit as for the first time they are on the edge of an election the outcome of which is uncertain. In fact, however, the pathway appears to be clear regardless of the winner. Egypt will first initiate the reforms that Turkey accomplished during Özal’s era. It will liberalize price movements. It has to abolish state support for many items from oil to rents and bread. The elections will choose the brave fellow to accomplish these. No one will pull a rabbit out of the hat. What Egypt will see is an ordinary austerity package. The troubles of life have put out the fire of revolution. The only new thing in Egypt is the iron gates in front of its ministries. So, why are the masses not able to complete the revolution? Because they get hungry. And you can’t just initiate a revolution every day. This is the second point to state.

And the third one: you might remember my civilization or hardship area tests. In Egypt, my Blackberry easily downloaded new emails to the inbox. Also, there were women walking on the streets, though few in number. The sidewalks were not good, but Cairo’s 70-kilometer subway line is in much better condition compared to Istanbul’s and Ankara’s pathetic 20-kilometer lines. I think the behavior of drivers in the traffic and the domination of rules also can be a good development test indicator. As the density of horn-blowing in traffic increases, the investment climate of that country most likely decreases. According to this, Egypt is not doing well. What is the purpose of blowing your car’s horn on an empty street at four in the morning? Why do they do this? Because it is impossible to estimate what the person or vehicle passing by will be doing a minute from now. Egypt, together with Libya, has the highest traffic-related death rates. So this is the third point.

Currently, Egyptians are learning the rules of democracy. Just because you like the ballot box, does it have to do what you want? Democracy does not end when your candidate does not win. Indeed, this is exactly what we call democracy.

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 12.06.2012