As the center of the world is changing, has Turkey made any effort to secure itself a seat in this new geographical center?

The trend of self-pity has returned in Turkey. Just as it did in the 1970s and the 1990s. Do you remember what happened when we shut our eyes to the world and focused exclusively on our own problems in the 1990s? What happened was that China woke up and we were never able to understand how the world had changed. Thus, we failed to take action and became rooted to the spot. We have been left alone in the middle of nowhere.

Actually, at the heart of such periods of self-pity and withdrawal lies the fact that we consider  ourselves to be at the center of the world. We still act as if the entire world is here only for Turkey. But it is not. First, Turkey is not at the center of the world at all. Second, the center of the world is changing constantly. Third, Turkey has not been making systemic efforts to become one in the future. Let me tell you. And please give up the self-pity. There is nothing miserable about Turkey. The successful are often criticized.

According to research by McKinsey, the world’s economic center of gravity shifts 140 kilometers to the east per year. Thus, from 2002 to 2012, the center of gravity shifted 1400 kilometers. Given that Turkey is 1650 kilometers from east to west, the economic center of gravity of the world has shifted east by almost the size of Turkey over the last decade. Yet, the world’s center of gravity moving close by its territory has no direct relation with Turkey. China’s gradual integration into the world economy has been shifting the center of gravity of the world economy towards the east once again. By the year 2050, the center will be in between China, Myanmar, Bangladesh and India. We know Myanmar from the attacks against Muslims in Rakhine. When planning our future, it will be useful to learn more about this country as a whole, with its Buddhists, Christians, and two-thirds of its population that live in rural areas engage in agriculture. But I believe that there is something wrong with Turkey’s objective lens.

It is no wonder why Americans put a greater emphasis on the rising importance of Asia Pacific when making prospective plans. Why do you think they have decided to allocate a greater proportion of military activities to Asia Pacific? Obviously, because the region has become the main trade route. The trade routes must be protected. Particularly over the last year, Russia’s leaders have been reminding us more frequently of the fact that Russia is an Asia Pacific country. Medvedev has noted that the decline in population in the Far East of Russia is a problem for the country. The population of Russia’s Far East has decreased to 7 million. Please note that Russia is a country of 140 million. Currently, they are concentrating on public investments in Vladivostok and enhancing relations with China. As the center of the world is changing, has Turkey made any effort to secure itself a seat in this new geographical center? I doubt it.

What do you see when you look at the countries that recovered quickly from the 2008 crisis? Both China and its suppliers not only have been growing rapidly, but also enhancing the pace of export growth despite the crisis. The crisis did not impact severely those that somehow found a place on the value chain passing through China. So, how can Turkey be articulated to a value chain passing through China in the period ahead? I prefer to read this as follows: Turkey needs to secure a place for itself during the economic integration process going on in the Far East. This relates not only to investing in China. In 1995, Far Eastern countries imported 12 percent of the industrial inputs from each other; now the rate is 23 percent. Turkey has to start planning the transportation connections with the new center and examining the opportunities offered by the countries of the new center of gravity. What are the lessons for Turkey? First is that we need to learn how to see the world from the perspective of opportunities, not threats. Second, we have to understand that Turkey is not at the center of the world. Third, it is not good to jump out onto the floor when you don’t know how to dance. What else can I say? Blame no one but yourself.

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 24.08.2012