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    Turkey achieved half of the EU’s GDP per capita before 2020

    Güven Sak, PhD23 October 2012 - Okunma Sayısı: 1138

     

    The number of SMEs operating in Turkey with EU capital has increased from 4,000 in 2003 to 15,000.

    Turkey’s per capita GDP has reached 50% of the EU-27 average. Please don’t tell me that the EU has accepted new members who have pulled the average down, or that a global crisis has occurred. In the final analysis, we have achieved 50% of the EU average. In 1995 when Turkey joined the Customs Union with the EU, its per capita GDP was 30% of the EU average. Back then, reaching 50% was a distant possibility. But today it has happened. Now Turkey can act more confidently about the EU membership target. If you ask me, if it wasn’t for the EU membership negotiations, Turkey couldn’t have achieved 50% of the EU’s average GDP per capita in such a short time. Let me give proof of this first.

    The government officials responsible for preparing medium- and long-term strategies and plans issued a report in 2004. I read through it yesterday. It was on the possible impacts for the EU of Turkey’s membership and was released right before the start of accession negotiations in 2005.

    Do you remember those times? Anyway, the report estimated when and to what degree Turkey’s GDP per capita would converge with that of the EU. The report expected that Turkey would achieve 50% of the EU’s GDP per capita by 2020. Turkey achieved 50% in 2012, eight years earlier than anticipated. We must be happy about this.

    Here is the second point: since the beginning of the EU membership negotiations, annual foreign direct investments of $15 billion have been coming to Turkey on average. Where do you think these funds come from? The Gulf countries with the help of Islamist solidarity or something? Not exactly. 75 to 80% of direct investment for production in Turkey comes from the EU each year.

    The number of SMEs operating in Turkey with EU capital has increased from 4,000 in 2003 to 15,000, according to Investment Promotion Agency of Turkey. Not only large scale-companies invest in Turkey; enterprises of all sizes are active. The EU negotiation process has improved Turkey’s investment potential, as was the case with other countries during the accession negotiations. So, this is the second point to keep in mind.

    Third, along with the accession negotiations, the trade integration process deepened. The EU is the most successful regional integration device developed so far. It includes other regions and transforms them. This was the case also for Turkey. During the process, Turkey’s total foreign trade increased from $30 billion to $145 billion.

    Two other developments have occurred as well. First, Turkey moved up to an upper league of export goods. It put value added upon it natural advantages. If you have doubts, just compare the export figures for the period between 1995 and 2010. Second, exports diversified and become alike with the export baskets of the EU. The share of the top five export goods of Turkey in 1995 had a share of 65 percent then. Now, the share of those has decreased to 45 percent. Foreign trade has been enhanced in terms of both quantity and diversity. Trading heavily with the EU, Turkey has become one of the important industrial economies of the region. Increasing connectivity has brought increasing success.

    Engaging more and more with the EU, Turkey has become like the EU. The accession process has picked up Turkey’s speed. Without the EU membership perspective, Turkey will be caught by the middle-income trap. I will talk about this later. In order to comment on the future, we have to understand the past. I wanted to remind those who seems to have forgotten this.

    This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 23.10.2012

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