Turkey has to reduce the authority of either the prime minister or the president. Otherwise, what has happened on the Island will happen here.

I will not write about the administrative impotence Istanbul demonstrated on May Day, which made the city look like Damascus or Aleppo in the eyes of the entire world. I did not want to write about the clashes in a heat. Instead, I want to talk about another sentimental reaction, the article on the direct election for the presidency. That article is a big problem for us. Turkey has an ongoing presidential system issue. Let me tell you how.

In general, things on Northern Cyprus used to be bad imitations of things in Turkey. It is different when it comes to presidential system, however: Cyprus guides Turkey in the presidential system debate. Northern Cyprus has a parliament composed of elected MPs, a prime minister responsible before the parliament, and a president who is directly elected by the people and enjoys broad authority. What to call this system is the business of political scientists, not politicians. Recently a friend who frets about the issue asked me “Which one do you think Mr. Tayyip would prefer: presidential system or semi-presidential system?” In response I said, “I think the system will be named after it is introduced by political scientists like you. I don’t think Mr. Tayyip is at all interested in the name.” System design is not the concern of a politician. All a politician wants is to perform. Northern Cyprus has a parliamentary system verging on a presidential system. Right at the point Turkey arrived at with the constitutional amendments of 2007.

Let me help you picture it: Turkey has 550 MPs for its 75 million people and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) has 50 MPs for its 300,000 people. That is, one MP represents 136,000 people in Turkey and 6,000 people in the TRNC. The latter has five districts, each of which constitutes an election zone. One can be elected MP with the votes of 2,000-3,000 people. The president is elected with more than 50% of the votes, while the prime minister is elected with fewer than 50%. The best example illustrating what happens afterwards is present in the TRNC today:  the inability to govern the country and make critical decisions. The TRNC is just drifting.

On the eve of the 19^th Ordinary Meeting of the ruling National Unity Party (NUP) on October 2012, Derviş Eroğlu, current president of the TRNC who led the NUP for a long time, and current prime minister İrsen Küçük entered into a big struggle. At the Meeting, İrsen Küçük fought against NUP MP Ahmet Kaşif, who had the support of Eroğlu. Speaking during the Meeting, Eroğlu reminded everyone that he had served the NUP for 36 years  as chair for 23 years, and prime minister for 19 years. He stressed that the constitution did not ban a party member from becoming president and required the president to leave his party during presidency. Can you imagine Turkey’s future? In the end, Küçük won with a seven-vote difference. Kaşif claimed that seven votes was not sufficient for Küçük’s victory and brought the case to trial, calling for a second round. The court ruled for the second-stage election. In the election held in February 2013, İrsen Küçük won again. Meanwhile, parliamentary and party work became snarled; processes were suspended. Turkish Cypriots are happy with their lives, polls say, but they are concerned about the future of the TRNC. They think the current system is not sustainable. If there is no sustainability, no one will be willing to invest in their future. Happiness will fade in the end. The objective of politics is to secure a sustainable political structure or at least convince the public opinion that it does so. The strife within the government reinforces opinions in the opposite direction. It wastes the energy of the TRNC.

The 2007 amendments planted a time bomb within the Turkish constitution. The public election of the president was a sentimental call and it is extremely dangerous. Turkey has to reduce the authority of either the prime minister or the president. Otherwise, what happened on the Island is to come: president and prime minister avoiding eye contact, their spouses hesitating to be in the same room, and a divided government party unable to make reforms. The TRNC indeed is an example.

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 03.05.2013