Turkey may never make the leap to the high-income group of countries if it cannot play its hand correctly while a new world order is taking shape.

The other day IMF managing director Lagarde said that the IMF might revise down the global growth estimations for 2013. Explaining the grounds for the revision, Lagarde particularly emphasized that 2013 growth might be lower than expected in emerging market economies, not for developing or low-income countries. This is new, specific to 2013. Everyone is wondering how the Chinese economy will slow down. This new situation inevitably will affect Turkey. What happened when the chairman of the Federal Reserve System of the US stated the obvious and said, “we cannot keep on purchasing bonds forever. There is an end to this and it is not that far away”?  The world has become more sensitive to positive developments in the US. The risks that no one has cared about until today are now seen with magnifying glass. This is a short term challenge and can be overcome only without a medium-term perspective.

About the medium-term, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership will radically change the way business is conducted throughout the world. If the ecosystem is changing, you  hadbetter adapt yourself. Mark my words: Turkey cannot preserve its position doing the same things it has done so far. In the past, quantity used to suffice. In today’s era, quality will gain importance. We used to migrate from the rural to urban regions and sectors. Today, the urban population has to be as skilled as their fellows in the rest of the world. People will higher skills live in more habitable cities. Turkey has to attain the highest world standard in every aspect of life and economy; otherwise, it will not be able to make the leap from middle- to high-income.

Where to start, then? To begin with, Turkey has to overcome the puzzling agenda that has been going on for more than a month now. Turkey definitely needs a positive agenda that will thrill everyone. Actually, Turkey does have one positive agenda of which we are not aware. It does not attract attention as no one emphasizes it. I think this positive agenda should have two part. The first should involve a debate on a new constitution driven by a democratization process based on decentralization. I believe that the negotiation process carried out by the four political parties in the parliament so far has facilitated the shaping on this part.

The second part should be composed of a series of programs concerning how Turkey can make the leap from the middle- to high-income group. This framework is present in the 10^th Development Plan, which was approved last week. Turkey in fact has a strategy document. The 10^th Development Plan involves the positive agenda that Turkey needs.

Here are three observations for you. First, the new development plan is the first official document that is aware of the middle-income trap facing Turkey. The document is hence highly important. Administrators are well aware of the main challenge facing Turkey in the changing world. Turkey may never make the leap to high-income if it cannot play its hand correctly while a new world order is taking shape. Acknowledging this and focusing on what steps to take are essentially important. I believe this qualitative improvement should be taken into account before the goals of the new plan. Second, the new plan suggests a series of programs to overcome the middle-income trap. This program-based approach is innovative and beneficial for Turkey. Third, the plan offers a wide array of new approaches from the changing of immigration policy to the taxation of urban profits, planning urban transformation in a way that will promote the quality of manufacturing industry, strengthening the pharmaceuticals industry, and the revision of the foreign aid strategy. I think it is the wise thing to do to address each of these items separately.

Turkey’s positive agenda lies in the 10^th Development Plan. I read it and loved it. I recommend all of you take a look at it.

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 09.07.2013