The Middle East is not as important for the US as it used to be. It is for China, and unfortunately for Turkey, which has not done its homework.

The other day I recalled an interview broadcast on the BBC. I was reading a recent op-ed by Tom Friedman in the New York Times. He was wondering why oil prices did not hike while the Middle East was in flames. If it were in the past, oil prices would have doubled, moving from the current $100 to around $200. But today, nobody seems to be at unease. While I was reading Friedman’s op-ed column, I recalled Zeki Yamani’s words in that BBC commentary I watched a couple of years ago: “The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones and the oil age will end, but not for a lack of oil.” I think we have come to the end of an age, the Churchill age. That’s why oil prices do not react to the escalating instability in the Middle East as strongly as they used to. So what will the new age be like and will it be good for Turkey?

As I said, the Churchill age seems to have ended. In 1911, Winston Churchill was Britain’s first lord of the Admiralty. He set to work to modernize the kingdom right after he assumed the office. Back then, the UK’s naval vessels were powered by coal. Churchill proposed to switch to oil, which would enable ships to travel twice as fast with less energy. The first reaction of London to his report was that Britain produced coal, not oil. Import dependency on oil for the first time appeared as an issue. In response, Churchill set forth the doctrine that prevails today: We will either extract oil or contract the extraction. After that, Great Britain took 51% of the shares of British Petroleum (BP) under control. Then they started with Iran, intervening into their domestic politics and re-drawing their borders. That’s how they dismantled the Ottoman Empire and drew the borders of Iraq.

But it seems that a new age is starting today. Close control of the Middle Eastern oil does not appear to be as important as it used to be. It is still important for the straddled countries like China and Turkey, but not for the US. In 1973, the US had to import 60% of its oil consumption. The dependency ratio is 36% today. The world has changed, not for Turkey, but for the US. This is true in three ways. First, with crude oil price exceeding $100 per barrel, extracting oil has become possible though at a cost more expensive than in the rest of the world. New energy sources such as renewable energy and shale gas have been discovered. Second, thanks to the steps for energy efficiency, the amount of energy required to produce a unit GDP decreased by 60% compared to 1973. A 50% additional decline is projected between 2012 and 2035.

The world has accomplished a technological leap that will enable us to pursue our present lives consuming less energy. Automobiles consume less energy. Car engines stop automatically when the light goes red and starts up again when it turns green. Third, building construction techniques have changed drastically. Green growth sectors are supported. What has happened at the end of the day? Just take a look at the Middle East today: Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Tunisia, and Yemen are no longer manageable. The importance of non-state actors has increased. Even in Amman, the most normal country in the region, demonstrations are being held. Intervention in Syria is expected. But oil prices are not rising.

So, where does Turkey stand in this green growth deal? On the bottom rung. Green growth was mentioned for the first time in the 10^th Development Plan adopted this year. For the first time it raised urban transformation as an industrial policy instrument, which could facilitate structural transformation in the construction materials sector. We are on the bottom rung of the ladder, and we have to switch from talking to acting. The Middle East is not as important for the US as it used to be. It is for China, and unfortunately for Turkey, which has not done its homework. Turkey still has a lot to do in the Middle East. If only it did not make a big deal out of it and pretend as if it will fund a new empire! Somehow Turkey is unable to memorize the rules of engagement. Let’s wait and see.

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 30.08.2013