1300 RPA pilots were employed in the US Army as of 2013, making up 8.5 percent of the total.

I believe that Turkey is not aware of the change, though the change is happening right under its nose. At least this is what I think, having seen the battle of words going on, as if we are surrounded by story tellers.  I think the current opinion of Turks about Ankara must be like the current opinion of Americans about Washington. Ankara is unable to differentiate between what is important and what is not. So today let us go back to the top and answer the question in the heading: how many people do you think it takes to fly a remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) and an F16 for 24 hours? What does the difference between an F16 and a RPA signify for the future? How does this relate to the Edward Snowden incident? Will this change affect our lives in Turkey? Let me start with the last one: Yes, it does affect Turkey, deeply.

The information and communication technologies (ICTs) have been changing the world lately. At first, the ICTs created new sectors and fields. Facebook and Google, for instance, were brand new ideas with all the opportunities they offered. They did not change the way of doing things in the field. They did not try to put new wine in old bottles. They created a new necessity, brought their brand new bottles. From now on, however, we are entering the new wine-old bottle phase of the ICTs. We are watching the ICTs changing the way things are done in the traditional sectors. Such is the Internet economy. The era of intelligent machines has started. But no, the world will not be problem-free from now on. The defense industry is one of the sectors in which you can watch the change most closely, either because it is where the change is the most rapid or where the difference can be sensed the most easily. It is the dawn of a new period in which war crafts will be replaced by RPAs.

First, a piece of news: in 2010, 15 Afghan civilians were killed in a drone operation inside their country. In December 2011, The Los Angeles Times published a piece according to which the mistake that killed them had been made not by a soldier, but by another civilian. The data output from a predator RPA had been misinterpreted by a civilian analyst working for a private company. General Philip M. Breedlove of the US Air Forces stated, “our no. 1 manning problem in the Air Force is manning our unmanned platforms.” The Air Force needed better-qualified staff. Things were not working with the current staff. That’s why the US Armed Forces began to work with private companies and subcontract tasks to civilians that later on turn out to be a problem, as in the case of Edward Snowden. According to a Brookings' study, 1300 RPA pilots were employed in the US Army as of 2013, making up 8.5 percent of the total. The rate had been around 3 percent in 2008.

It’s not only pilots. You need 168 people to keep a predator RPA operational for 24 hours. Flying a Global Hawk RPA requires the serious work of 300 staff members, while the number is less than 100 to fly an F16. The math is that, for the time being, it requires the work of more people to operate intelligent machines. Second, the personnel that work with intelligent machines have to be more skilled compared to those working with the old technology. Third, when the ICT is introduced in a traditional sector, the skill set of the people in the sector has to be replenished. People who have the new skills demanded by the sector have the chance to get well-paid jobs while earnings decrease for those who only have the old skills. In this picture, people who have below-average skills are no longer satisfied with what they do. They constantly complain about their wages being low and constantly seek new jobs, which actually do not exist. At the end of the day, underemployment increases.

The Turkish Statistical Institution has been releasing underemployment statistics since January 2009. The rate of people who work less than 40 hours per week and are willing to work more, who want to change their jobs and are seeking an additional job, has increased over the last year. From a different perspective, the number of people unhappy with their wages has increased. I recommend you check the latest issue of the TEPAV Employment Bulletin. Although Turkish companies generate new employment opportunities, they do not match the current skills set of the labor force. How surprising!

When introduced in traditional sectors, the ICTs put new wine into old bottles. What are Turkey’s chances of survival with its seventh-grade dropout population? Is the current education system able to respond to this technical need? Does the vocational education system have the infrastructure for reorganization? Three questions, one answer: no. That’s the real deal here. Not the ongoing battle of words in Ankara.

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 22.10.2013