Expectations in the Retail Sector Stagnate TEPE which was been standing in the negatives since January had a value of -5.1 in July 2012.

ANKARA – The TEPAV Retail Confidence Index (TEPE) showed a slight improvement in July following the fall in June. TEPE therefore marked a 1.5 point month-on-month increase and a 5.8 point year-on-year decrease.

The balance value of the expectations for the next three months stood at 7 in July 2012. 38.9 percent of TEPE survey participants expect an improvement in their business activities in the next three months while 32.1 percent expect a deterioration. This implies a 6.5 point decrease compared to July 2011 and a 0.5 point decrease compared to June 2012.

In July 2012 23.7 percent of the participants declared a year-on-year improvement in business activities whereas 51.3 percent declared deterioration. Volume of business activities, therefore decreased by 20.1 points compared to July 2011 and increased by 2 points compared to June 2012.

The EU-27 Retail Confidence Index stood at -10.3 in July 2012, demonstrating a month-on-month increase by 0.3 points and a year-on-year decreased by 5.5 points.

Comparing the retail confidence indices for the EU-27 countries and Turkey in July 2012, year-on-year drops were observed in all EU countries excluding United Kingdom, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, and Austria. The sharpest drops were experienced by Italy, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, and Hungary. Eurozone countries performed worse than the overall EU region compared to both July 2011 and June 2012.

Food, beverages, and tobacco products sector was the best performer compared to July 2011. This was followed by the non-specialized stores sector. All sectors but the two demonstrated year-on-year drops in performance. The declines were lower than the average in the textiles, ready-made clothing and footwear sector and “others” sector (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware, glassware, stationery etc.), and higher than the average in the furniture, lighting and household articles sector and motor vehicles sector. The sharpest year-on-year drop was in the electrical appliances, radio and televisions sector.

Question-based assessment of TEPE survey results reveal that expectations and activities recovered compared to June 2012. The most evident recovery was in the business volume in the last three months. Compared to July 2011, all expectations and volumes but the volume of business indicators compared to last three months decreased. The sharpest drop was in the volume of business activities compared to July 2011 and expectations for the sales volume in the next three months.