Archive

  • August 2019 (2)
  • July 2019 (2)
  • June 2019 (4)
  • May 2019 (6)
  • April 2019 (3)
  • March 2019 (4)
  • February 2019 (2)
  • January 2019 (1)
  • December 2018 (4)
  • November 2018 (3)
  • October 2018 (3)
  • September 2018 (3)

    An FTA would be a good idea, Mr. Graham
    Güven Sak, PhD 04 August 2019
    It was in the papers this week: for the first time in history, the number of $100 bills have exceeded the number of $1 bills, and apparently, 70 percent of those $100 bills are outside the US. Why? Because people want to safeguard their hard-earned savings in climates of extreme macro policy uncertainty. Turkey is one such example, where after a brief hiatus of stability, Mr. Benjamin Franklin’s likeness is back in fashion. Why? [More]
    How to make Syrians more invisible in Turkey
    Güven Sak, PhD 21 July 2019
    There are around 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, and nearly half of them are children. That number plateaued this past year, but we in Turkey’s big cities didn’t really feel them. In the last few months, it’s as if the visibility of Syrians has increased. This shows up in public opinion surveys too, where people list Syrian refugees as one of the country’s top five issues. Why? I see three reasons. [More]
    What Europe should know about North Cyprus
    Güven Sak, PhD 14 July 2019
    Last week, Turkey saw its first current account surplus in 16 years. That would be cause for celebration if it wasn’t due to the Lira’s rapid depreciation, and the deep recession we’re in. The era of constructive ambiguity in economic policymaking has abruptly ended with the sacking of the governor of the Central Bank. Markets are now clear about the kind of institutions they are dealing with in Ankara. This of course, will not help the recession, no matter how rapid the impending rate cut is going to be. So success stories are hard to come by these days. [More]
    The lessons from Turkey’s election season
    Güven Sak, PhD 30 June 2019
    Turkish politics will be on a much-appreciated break this week, as President Erdoğan makes his way to Osaka for the G20 summit. The Istanbul rerun is over. After Japan, President Erdoğan will be hosted by President Xi in Beijing, and all together, he will be away from Ankara for about 10 days. Turkey’s Parliament is also in summer recess. So this is a time when Turkey’s political class can get some distance from their routines, and maybe even deign to think ahead a little bit. [More]
    Of Turks and Americans
    Güven Sak, PhD 16 June 2019
    Winston Churchill once said that “you can count on the Americans to do the right thing,” then he added, I presume with a smile, “after they have exhausted all other possibilities.” It isn’t any different for the Turks, I may add. [More]
    The G20 can save the world once again
    Güven Sak, PhD 09 June 2019
    Marx and Engels famously started the Communist Manifesto with the words “a specter is haunting Europe—the specter of communism.” Crypto Anarchist Timothy May was less Euro-centric, beginning his 1992 Crypto Anarchist Manifesto with the words “a specter is haunting the modern world—the specter of crypto anarchy.” I would say that the “modern world” today, is anywhere with an internet connection. That’s a lot of people of a lot of different cultures. [More]
    Half of Turks are still not working
    Güven Sak, PhD 02 June 2019
    In 2018, the Turkish lira depreciated by 39 percent against the US dollar. That was followed by steep increases in unemployment and inflation, the combination of which yields a 60 percent increase in Turkey’s so-called “misery index.” In other words: people are hurting. [More]
    Yes, Turks feel the impact
    Güven Sak, PhD 21 May 2019
    “Is the guy on the street feeling it?” someone asked me this week. The “it” here refers to the economy of course. His intention, I gather, was to understand why the governing bloc failed in Istanbul, as well as Turkey’s other major cities. Is it the economy or ideology? I tend to think that economy was important, and it’s going to be more so from now on. [More]
    All the reserves in the world will not suffice
    Güven Sak, PhD 12 May 2019
    Rulers have to live with their decisions. There is a point in Shakespeare’s famous play where Lady Macbeth is sleepwalking. She has recently plotted with her husband the murder of Duncan and Macduff’s family, and though this has given them power, she is now ridden with guilt, and maybe regret. [More]
    Why I am optimistic about Turkey
    Güven Sak, PhD 05 May 2019
    Turkey may look vulnerable to you. When President Erdoğan was elected back in June 2018, you could buy a dollar with 4.71 Lira. Now it costs around 5.97 Lira. This means that the Lira has depreciated by around 27 percent in less than a year against the dollar. Yet there are solid reasons to be optimistic about Turkey. [More]