Again on the problems of the neighbor...
Fatih Özatay, PhD
29 April 2010
Almost a month ago favorable news on Greece spread around. Also at this column I wrote a commentary with the title 'Greece will take a deep breath, but will not be in peace'. Nonetheless, intrigues did not end preventing Greece to take a deep breath. The point we arrived is quite worrisome.
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Export structure and global crisis
Fatih Özatay, PhD
25 April 2010
One of the main reasons for the contractionary effects of the global crisis in 2009 was the fall in the demand for Turkey's exports. Steep reductions in Turkey's exports are unique to the global crisis; no such thing was experienced in the 2001 crisis. The recent change in export structure of Turkey also has a role in this.
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Do export markets of Turkey diversify?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
22 April 2010
On Monday at this column I reached the conclusion that export movements during the 2001 crisis and the global crisis were quite different. In the 2001 crisis real exports of goods and services did not fall down. However, exports, which recently started to recover, dropped significantly following the burst of the global crisis. I should also remind that despite the mentioned recovery export volume still remains below the peak level before the crisis.
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Export story of the two crises
Fatih Özatay, PhD
19 April 2010
We continue to our journey: today we will examine the changes in export volume during the 2001 crisis and the global crisis. Commenting on the past developments is neither the only nor the most important purpose here. The main purpose is to have a hint about the prospective developments. Let us see whether we can make forecasts at the end of our adventure.
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Foreign fund story of the two crises
Fatih Özatay, PhD
18 April 2010
I will continue with the comparison of 2001 crisis and the global crisis. Previously I compared the two in terms of unemployment, inflation, and production. Unemployment rate increased during both. In the 2001 crisis unemployment rate rose by 3.5 point to 10.5 percent compared to the previous period. The rate jumped to 14 percent level in this crisis. Unemployment rate increased by the same amount, though to a higher level in the latter. The movements in the GDP were also similar in case of both crisis. The time period from the peak before the crisis to the trough after the crisis was the same in case of both crises. The period and style of recovery also seems similar. On the other hand, production loss between the peak and the trough was larger in the global crisis.
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What does the statement by the Central Bank imply?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
15 April 2010
Yesterday, Central Bank of Turkey (CB) made important statements. How will the changes to be implemented in the monetary policy in the context of this statement affect the corporate sector and consumers? It will not. There is nothing much that is our concern. However, I want to discuss the statement anyway. I will first want to apologize as this will be a technical comment to a large extent.
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Making things harder for themselves
Fatih Özatay, PhD
12 April 2010
In some cases it becomes too hard to fight with inflation by changing interest rate policy. This applies particularly for the periods where inflation rate increases in parallel with the developments in the world. For instance, what can you do if the price of energy that you have to import increases?
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Society’s memory can sometimes be too strong
Fatih Özatay, PhD
11 April 2010
I noticed a story when I was reading the papers on Saturday: at the opening ceremony of a kinder garden in Mardin, a protocol member gives money as a prize to the children that played the local folk dance at the ceremony. And as he could not find any liras in his pocket, he gives 100 dollars per each. You might notice when you are shopping that sometimes people say the prices in million liras, not in liras. We also do the same thing, when you are talking of big amounts you easily get confused. You cannot decide whether to say trillions, quadrillions, or billions.
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Inflation story of the two crises
Fatih Özatay, PhD
08 April 2010
Let me say it at once: changes in gross domestic product (GDP) after the 2001 crisis and the 2008 crisis are completely in the opposite direction with the changes in inflation rate. The possible reasons for this situation might play a significant role in determining the future shape of the monetary policy. Let me express it more clearly. But first let me re-present the GDP graph I gave last Thursday.
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