Need for an integrated approach
22 January 2009
We shall not pin our hopes upon individual solutions in the period of crisis we are going through. This fact was relevant even for four months earlier, but it is much more relevant today. There exist interrelated problems and there is a need for an economic program that will take into account and at least ease all of those problems - expecting that a program would completely resolve problems would not be realistic - so as to be able to reach the shore (2010). To clarify the situation, I will enumerate the mentioned interrelated problems once more.
Search for a bridge to the other side
19 January 2009
I have been repeating after and after that the global crisis will affect Turkey through four different channels. There are measures to tackle with the first three, namely the fall in external credits, narrowing down of domestic credits and worsening of confidence, as we also discussed here in this column. On the other hand, we do not have any means eliminate the negative affects realizing through the fourth channel, i.e. to prevent the fall in foreign demand for the goods produced in Turkey, in the short term.
Two years lost
18 January 2009
I know that my recent columns are depressing, but so is the current situation not only in Turkey but throughout the world. The additional depressing factor in case of Turkey is that no comprehensive economic program is announced yet. Some individual precautionary measures have been introduced and the Central Bank have announced some relieving decisions; however, it is not sufficient as the measures announced by some other countries are considered. And this situation, normally, is forcing me to write more depressing columns.
A bit of geometrics: Circle and chord
15 January 2009
Note: Tangent is the line passing through a point on the circle. Chord is the line segment linking two points on a circle. The longest chord of a circle is the one passing through the center of the circle. That is, in time, a tangent can evolve into a chord. The acts of the chord cannot be determined at all; it can go and pass through the center of the circle.
Optimistic growth estimations
12 January 2009
Estimations for global growth are continuously pushed down. For instance, IMF recently stated that the new estimations to be announced this month will imply relatively lower growth rates than the previous month. First estimations on the growth rate for Turkey in 2009 show that in the first half of the year the economy will contract. It is emphasized that the growth in the third quarter will be around zero and a rapid recovery will take place in the last quarter of 2009. The estimations for annual performance estimate a growth by 0-0.5 percent in average. Of course there are also colleagues that expect lower or higher growth rates. However, there is a consensus that it is a higher possibility that the growth rate will be below the given range.
Passiveness prevails in the mid January
11 January 2009
Production levels are steeply falling down. The growth estimations for 2009 are modified downwards. There even exists a risk that the economy will contract. So, what would you do under such circumstances? An alternative can be inaction. I may list a lot of reasons why such a passive attitude will be assumed; but today I will enumerate just seven.
‘What shall we do’ part for the IMF
08 January 2009
Oh Dear, what will happen now? Just yesterday, I was making fun of various expressions of 'I told you so'. However, "I told you so". I swear I did. And what is more, not only I told you so; we told you so...
05 January 2009
Since the bubble that emerged in the housing market of the US has burst, we are covered by 'tiny bubbles' all around. Everyone keeps saying "bubble is growing in Turkey", "keep out; the bubble will burst", "this is the result of 'false monetary policies'" and so on...
01 January 2009
It is a custom that - though I do not know whether it is so, or if it is, why it is so - calculations are made on the eve of the New Year; what was said about the year left and to what extent they were realized and so on. On the last day of 2008, the day I wrote this column, I skimmed over old columns with a bit of hesitation; because, throughout the year I have asked questions meaning 'Who has the control' and criticized the ongoing inertia. Yes, but what did I say throughout the year? What if one says: "You keep on criticizing, but, what about you?"