Measures against low exchange rate
Fatih Özatay, PhD
04 January 2010
The last two commentaries of 2009 were an introduction to what measures can be taken against the appreciation of Turkish lira. The first commentary asked what we would do if Turkey manages to create a new success story and thus the Turkish Lira tends to appreciate. I firstly recalled post- 2001 period and mentioned the positive impacts of the appreciation (low exchange rate) enjoyed back then. Then, I underlined that low exchange rate that will come up if a new story is created will least possibly ensure positive effects as was enjoyed in the post-2001 period. The second commentary finished like this: "In that case, if we get a new 'economic story' that will lead to low exchange rate in the coming period, exports will be affected quite adversely unlike the case in the post-2001 crisis per
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The New Year
Fatih Özatay, PhD
03 January 2010
First commentary of the new year... You have to create a new folder under the 'documents' folder and name it. It is easy when you say: 'Radikal2010'. I have a separate folder for each year; their number is on the rise. In the past, it was just 'a new folder' created at the beginning of each year. But being aware of the rise in their number is a totally different question mark. "I have just created the folder for 2009!"
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New economic story and low exchange rate
Fatih Özatay, PhD
31 December 2009
I will continue from where I stopped on Monday. The question was: if Turkey gets an 'economic story' and as a result if the lira tends to appreciate, can we increase exports? The question appears as conflicting in this wording. But in fact it is not. To show why, I would like to summarize my comments on Monday.
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Fiscal policy can go beyond arrogance
Güven Sak, PhD
31 December 2009
The foreseeability of fiscal policy is a top priority issue for 2010. It is probable that the consequences of the wrong decisions of yesterday will be felt in 2010. The situation is serious if not impossible to solve. Problem lies in the seriousness of the government. Let us see what the issue is.
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Control on capital movements
Fatih Özatay, PhD
28 December 2009
The question is what will we do if Turkey manages to create a new success story and thus the Turkish Lira tends to appreciate? In fact, let alone the creation of a new story, one even doubts the sustainability of the existing sloppy and short economic story that no one is willing to read. However, I am supposed to make comments on economics in this column; I am interested in the question above and I have been discussing his with colleagues for a while. Let me open the issue up. To do this, I have to go back to the program implemented after the 2001 crisis, conditions in the rest of the world back then as well as the outcomes of the implemented program.
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Again on the earthquake of the economic theory
Fatih Özatay, PhD
27 December 2009
Mainstream economic theory is under crossfire. It is not possible to analyze the crisis using the existing models: those models do not include the financial system, neglect the possibility of not repaying the debt and they do not even contain monetary system. Furthermore, these models assume that people have an extraordinary set of information and the capacity to process that information. What is more, they know how the economy operates. In short, the 'people' assumed in the model have excellent mental abilities; they can comprehend anything.
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What does a public institution has to do in the list of most popular websites?
Güven Sak, PhD
26 December 2009
As per 2008, 26.5 million people in Turkey use the Internet. The number was 2.5 million people in 2000. Number of internet users rose by 40 percent in 2008 compared to the year before. If we assume that the rate will prevail, number of internet users must have reached 35 million in 2009. Have you wondered what do all these people do online? I took a look at it for Turkey and for other countries. Do you know that a public institution ranks the thirty third in the most popular websites ranking? Do you also know that in other countries you do not see public institutions in the most popular websites list? Website of the Ministry of National Education of Turkey (MoNE) is the 33rd most visited website among Turkey. When rankings for other countries are examined, the different can be grasped. So,
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Can we save 2011?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
24 December 2009
Thinking on the potential growth rate of economy in 2011 makes me pessimistic to a certain extent for two reasons. First, general elections will be held in 2011 if not called early. Moreover, the year after that, presidential elections will be held. Election mood in 2007 pushed up the political polarization, which is not good for the economy. It makes economic units anxious and forces them to postpone long term plans. Therefore, demand does not rise as if it would under a normal climate. On the other hand, in such periods, no attention is paid to structural reforms. Let aside reforms, no sufficient effort is made for designing short term economic policies. The second reason is economic.
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2010 will be the year where the resistance of firms will be tested
Güven Sak, PhD
24 December 2009
The question of today is how 2010 will be. Let us start without wasting time: 2010 will be the year where the resistance of banks and non-bank corporate sector will be tested. Here, "resistance" is directly related with the "size of caches" of firms, according to the concise expression of Honorable Prime Minister of Turkey. First the meaning of the term cache must be well understood. Then, the testing of the resistance of firms must be dealt with. The first question to be answered is why the year 2009 passed along in a relative tranquility. Did the government introduce any measure or something?
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If designing the future is ignored while facing the past, we cannot see any recovery
Güven Sak, PhD
22 December 2009
Yesterday gave at the caption "Young entrepreneurs are uneasy." Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB) launched the largest young entrepreneur movement of Turkey, last week in Ankara. Democratic chamber movement began to organize young entrepreneurs following women entrepreneurs. This was a move in the right direction. First Congress of Young Entrepreneurs Board was held in Ankara. The meeting was attended by 1500 delegates from all around Turkey. Participants were young; 70 percent between 30-39 years old and 30 percent between 20-29 years old. But, what did that caption in Referans daily imply? Were young entrepreneurs actually uneasy? The impression I got in the meeting was in fact quite different.
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