Need for an integrated approach
22 January 2009
We shall not pin our hopes upon individual solutions in the period of crisis we are going through. This fact was relevant even for four months earlier, but it is much more relevant today. There exist interrelated problems and there is a need for an economic program that will take into account and at least ease all of those problems - expecting that a program would completely resolve problems would not be realistic - so as to be able to reach the shore (2010). To clarify the situation, I will enumerate the mentioned interrelated problems once more.
Obama era is a window of opportunity for Turkey
20 January 2009
Today is a historic day. President Obama will begin his term as the President of the United States. Though Israel's latest Gaza operations will force Obama to make immediate foreign policy decisions, the new President will most likely have to focus on economic issues. Expectations are quite high and the problem is more serious than any other that we have ever faced. While immediate foreign policy decisions are forcing the doors, we will see that domestic decisions for the economy will in fact be foreign policy decisions. And the task to shape a new global economic architecture will be carried out by the administration that is to take the office. By this way, a change in style will take place. This is what is going to happen, regardless of whether it is desired or not. We are standing just
Search for a bridge to the other side
19 January 2009
I have been repeating after and after that the global crisis will affect Turkey through four different channels. There are measures to tackle with the first three, namely the fall in external credits, narrowing down of domestic credits and worsening of confidence, as we also discussed here in this column. On the other hand, we do not have any means eliminate the negative affects realizing through the fourth channel, i.e. to prevent the fall in foreign demand for the goods produced in Turkey, in the short term.
Two years lost
18 January 2009
I know that my recent columns are depressing, but so is the current situation not only in Turkey but throughout the world. The additional depressing factor in case of Turkey is that no comprehensive economic program is announced yet. Some individual precautionary measures have been introduced and the Central Bank have announced some relieving decisions; however, it is not sufficient as the measures announced by some other countries are considered. And this situation, normally, is forcing me to write more depressing columns.
Have you ever visited the Prime Ministry web site?
17 January 2009
United States of America is getting ready for the Obama era. Inauguration is to be held next week. Bush period of "So many leadership with no followers", as Harvard professor Joseph Nye puts it, is coming to an end. Just a while before, we were saying that "President Obama will be the first president of the Star Trek generation" - in the article talking about "going to places where no one has dared to go before". Presidency of Obama highlights that some things are not going to be the same for the United States of America. Please, do not show displeasure and say "nothing ever changes there". You shall give America its due. But, do not worry, today, I do not have any intention to comment on America. I am just seeking to make an extended introduction on the subject of internet and communica
A bit of geometrics: Circle and chord
15 January 2009
Note: Tangent is the line passing through a point on the circle. Chord is the line segment linking two points on a circle. The longest chord of a circle is the one passing through the center of the circle. That is, in time, a tangent can evolve into a chord. The acts of the chord cannot be determined at all; it can go and pass through the center of the circle.
Prerequisite for changing the reality is accepting it
15 January 2009
You might be discontent with the reality you face. Changing that reality might be the main purpose of your life. However, you cannot fulfill that purpose by pretending as if that reality does not exist. Recently, in Turkey, we observe "a tendency towards flight from reality" with respect to both economic policy and foreign policy. Since leadership means accepting and trying to change the reality, this tendency is certainly bad. And in fact, it is extremely dangerous. Let's see why.
Optimistic growth estimations
12 January 2009
Estimations for global growth are continuously pushed down. For instance, IMF recently stated that the new estimations to be announced this month will imply relatively lower growth rates than the previous month. First estimations on the growth rate for Turkey in 2009 show that in the first half of the year the economy will contract. It is emphasized that the growth in the third quarter will be around zero and a rapid recovery will take place in the last quarter of 2009. The estimations for annual performance estimate a growth by 0-0.5 percent in average. Of course there are also colleagues that expect lower or higher growth rates. However, there is a consensus that it is a higher possibility that the growth rate will be below the given range.
Passiveness prevails in the mid January
11 January 2009
Production levels are steeply falling down. The growth estimations for 2009 are modified downwards. There even exists a risk that the economy will contract. So, what would you do under such circumstances? An alternative can be inaction. I may list a lot of reasons why such a passive attitude will be assumed; but today I will enumerate just seven.
Are we the control group of an experiment?
10 January 2009
Turkish government has been monitoring the financial crisis that has been blatantly arriving here in Turkey as long for almost one and a half years without taking any precautionary measures. Observing such contentment, one cannot stop thinking that the government has an intention. Recently, a friend of mine said "I am afraid that Turkey might be the control group." Why not? Maybe, Turkey is the control group of the experiment conducted to understand the measures required to tackle the crisis. Can this be possible? Let us see.