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    Consumer price inflation and headline inflation: why in the sulks?

    Fatih Özatay, PhD07 October 2010 - Okunma Sayısı: 1132

     

    Until some time ago, the day when the inflation figures were announced had a special importance for me. I waited the announcement with excitement and tried to evaluate the figures. I believe this was a 'occupational deformation' resulting from my duty at the Central Bank in the period of intense inflation after the 2001 crisis.

    But thank God, the deformation eased after I quitted by job at the Bank. And it completely disappeared along with the global crisis. I believe I through that given the deformation already occurring as you age, I do not need to deal with an occupational deformation. And I guess this attitude has been imbedded in my subconscious that I usually forget the day the inflation figures were to be announced. On the morning of the day the figures were announced, I was invited to a television show in the afternoon. After acting reluctant for some time, I recalled the words of the butcher of the neighborhood: "We have not been seeing you on television for long." Debates on imported meets were on the agenda and YOK (Higher Education Council) President Mr. Ozcan warns us on television that Israel and the US can 'cure' people resident in Turkey with weird objects they will put in tomatoes Turkey imports. If this was possible for tomatoes, why would not it be for imported meat?

    Then, I felt the urge to accept the invitation. I am aware that the butcher of the neighborhood, after listing his questions 'What the euro-dollar exchange rate will be' or 'how will the price of copper change', starts a comprehensive analysis without waiting my habitual response reading "I do not know; but potential growth rate is of greater importance. And unemployment rate on the other hand..." But, anyway, I thought that if I was featured on the television a couple of times, I could regain the 'expert' rank and get to talk more in our next conversation eliminating this risk.

    So, I opened the economy channels. I saw that inflation rate was announced. I suddenly felt like a hardworking student who did not do his homework yet. I felt the urge to take a look at the detailed inflation figures. And what is more I had other things to do. I had to make my book ready for print. But I tried to take a look at the figures anyway: though I did not like much, kids liked meat; so I focused my attention with the meat-US-Israel threat triangle in my head. But I gave up at most in a minute. I rationalized this thinking 'It is the fish season now, we can stop eating red meat' and decided not to endure anymore. Because nothing has changed. It was the same old story for the last five years: Consumer price inflation rose; but headline inflation figures were pleasing.

    So, decided to share with you my short-lasting suffering. Some of you might ask "Why would I care for your suffering?" I have a graph for you, which shows the difference between consumer price inflation (measured with the l index) and headline inflation as of 2006. It is seen that consumer price inflation stood above the headline inflation over the examined period. And recently the gap has been widening. What sort of headline inflation is this that the consumer price inflation, which is a concern for the public as a whole cannot converge to it? Are they in the sulks or something?


    radikal20101007 Graph: Difference between consumer price inflation and headline inflation (January 2006 September 2010, percentage points)

     

    This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 07.10.2010

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