It is not possible to explain the recent movements in Tunisia and Egypt referring only to economic indicators.

I want to address some other indicators on Egypt and Tunisia. The key question is: Is it possible to explain the recent movements in Tunisia and Egypt referring only economic indicators?

Before, I talked about the change in the per capita income in Egypt and Tunisia as a ratio to that in the USA. The said ratios were 13.5 percent for Egypt and 23.3 percent for Tunisia by 2007 (17.8 percent for Turkey). The ratios are based on the purchasing power. Different results can be reached on the basis of different purchasing power parity calculations. I used Penn World Table. Apart from this, the movement of the ratios in time is also of importance. It is not possible to talk about any deterioration either for Egypt or Tunisia. In fact, a moderate improvement is observed. 

What do the figures say?

During the global crisis, the growth performance has deteriorated compared to the previous years. However the economy did not shrink: In 2009 Egypt and Tunisia grew by 4.4 and 3.1 percent, respectively (in that year Turkey's economy contracted by 4.7 percent). In the 1992-2001 period, Tunisia grew by 4.8 percent and Egypt by 4.5 percent (higher than the growth rate in Turkey). The countries had similar performances in the 2002-2008 period, as well.

The unemployment rate in Tunisia is higher than that in Egypt. 2002-2007 average is 14.1 percent in the former and 10 percent in the latter (the rate is 9.5 percent in Turkey). Figures say that the unemployment rate decreased in both Egypt and Tunisia in 2009 but we cannot conclude about the reliability of this data.

In the 2006-2009 period, inflation rate elevated continuously in Egypt and the rate reached 16.2 percent by 2009. The figures do not reveal a significant problem about inflation in Tunisia: the rate was 3.1 percent in 2009 (in 2009 inflation rate in Turkey was 6.5 percent).

I do not have any data on income distribution. The United Nations publishes the human development index. The index does not compare the level of development solely on with reference to per capita income. The comparisons are in three main dimensions: life expectancy and health; access to information (education) and humanly life standards

Freedom index

Among 169 countries, Tunisia ranks the 81^st and Egypt ranks the 101^st in 2010's index while Turkey ranks the 83^rd. The historical performance of the countries is also of importance with respect to this criterion. Between 1980 and 2010 both Tunisia and Egypt ensured an improvement by 1.5 percent in average (pace of improvement in Turkey is significantly lower - 1.2 percent).

Freedom House prepares and publishes a freedom index each year. The index is based on evaluations in two dimensions: political rights and civil liberties. Countries are graded on a scale from 1 to 7 where 1 represents the highest level of freedom and 7 represents the absence of all liberties. In terms of political rights, Tunisia and Egypt scored 7 and 6, respectively. Both have the grade of 5 with respect to civil liberties. The countries are categorized in the not free group. Turkey scored 3 and is in the partly free group. The Transparency International ranks 178 countries on the basis of the prevalence of corruption in the public sector. In 2010 Tunisia ranked the 59^th, Egypt the 98^th and Turkey the 56^th.

It appears that under oppressive regimes lack of political rights and liberties and high level of corruption are the main challenges. Otherwise, it is not easy to explain the recent movements in Tunisia and Egypt referring only to growth or health and education indicators. The picture is even more complex in Egypt; numerous factors seems to be interlocked.

This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 15.02.2011