Archive

  • March 2024 (1)
  • December 2022 (1)
  • March 2022 (1)
  • January 2022 (1)
  • November 2021 (1)
  • October 2021 (1)
  • September 2021 (2)
  • August 2021 (4)
  • July 2021 (3)
  • June 2021 (4)
  • May 2021 (5)
  • April 2021 (2)

    An odd form of stability

    Fatih Özatay, PhD01 March 2011 - Okunma Sayısı: 1024


    Favorable economic developments in the recent period disguise an unpleasant form of stability.

    Gaddafi is in power for more than 40 years; and he is about to be overthrown. Hosni Mobarak stayed in power for about thirty years and Zeynel Abidin Bin Ali for more than 20 years. Compared to democratic countries, we can talk about an outstanding persistence in management: 'management stability'.

    The case for Libya is a bit more complicated; but what we witnessed in Egypt and Tunisia reveals that the masses in the latter two countries were not at all happy with their lives. Then, 'stability' is not always desired. It is of higher importance the stability of what we are talking about. It is evident that the stability of despotic regimes is of no benefit to masses.

    We refer to the term stability so frequently that the concept loses sense. One might end up concluding without questioning that stability is perfect no matter what. In the above example, the terms 'management stability' and 'political stability' gets intermingled. However the former does not necessarily bring the latter.

    Is it enough to consider the inflation rate alone?

    We often talk about stability probably for two reasons: one is political and the other is economic. The political reason is that most, if not all, of the coalition governments did not make a good impression on us. The economic reason is obvious: we had lived in the face of high budget deficits, high real interest rates, volatile growth and high inflation rate for years. With this background, stability becomes an important concept for all of us. Let me leave the political aspects aside and turn back to the basics, i.e. the economics. Though I know it is not at all interesting, I want to exemplify my argument as follows: Assume that inflation rate varied around 50 percent over a long period of time. Therefore, the economy reflects a high degree of stability solely with respect to inflation rate. It is evident that no one is talking about that type of inflation; this is why this example is not at all interesting.
    But we sometimes miss out that when saying "Look, we live in a highly stable environment" we tend to talk about a senseless form of stability, if not completely odd. This mistake is not that obvious. Moreover, it does not fit in the reality we witness.

    Are we happy with this stability?

    Let me begin with the 'not fitting in' part: Turkey is growing. Today's Turkey is no longer same with the Turkey of ten years ago or twenty years ago. Computers, mobile phones, increase in the number of automobiles per capita, regular highways, more people being on plane, a much better communication system, improvements in the access to health and all. We can add a number of items to this list. So in this respect there is no 'stability' but development.

    However, the development disguises an unpleasant form of stability: per capita income in Turkey did not change significantly from 1980 to today.  The stability Turkey has in this respect is remarkable. The problem is that, per capita income in Turkey in proportion to that in developed countries is even lower than 50 percent: 27 percent in proportion to the US and 36 percent in proportion to Germany. Then, are we happy with this stability?

     

    This commentary was published in Radikal daily on 01.03.2011

    Tags:
    Yazdır