Do you remember the suras of apocalypse that Nazım Hikmet wrote? The beautiful poem that goes, 'There have been many presages, the time has come/The illicit has become legitimate, the legitimate is illicit/.../There have been many presages, the presages of apocalypse'. Nowadays, our economic system is going through a similar period. I believe it is a big loss, not being able to notice that. We were too late to understand the changes in the beginning of the crisis, and it cost us dear. Now if we fail to keep up with the changes, it seems to me that the consequences will once more be burdensome. That's the reason why I'm writing this article.

As we approach the G20 summit in Canada, different messages from different places on earth are received. The news from China attracted everyone's attention in our country although it mostly concerned the westerns. Do we see the world from the eyes of western media, all the time? I get very curious, from time to time. It seems to me that we do. We immediately get caught up in their matters, but the problems are not always common. Don't hurry into saying 'See, there is the axial dislocation again', and read the rest, please.

While focused on China, the news from South Korea and Indonesia were not followed closely, but I think those were the ones that concerned Turkey much more. We are in a new period in which the 'illicit has become legitimate', concerning the global operation of yesterday. The good indicators of yesterday are not as tasty as they used to be, in this process of transition to the new-normal. The parameter change of the 2008 crisis still continues.

I don't know if you see the transformed meaning of capital controls. If you don't, please start doing so, these days. What is the meaning of Brazil, South Korea and Indonesia, all starting capital controls? It seems to me that from now on, we will be deciding on the favorite countries of the new-normal are, by looking at the complexity of the capital controls they exercise. As I said in the beginning, the illicit has become legitimate, the legitimate is illicit. There have been many presages, the apocalypse is close. I don't know if you noticed, but it's one of those days I feel like chitchatting. Those of you who wonder are welcome to join me down the article.

It didn't use to be like this. Now, the world that we're accustomed to has become degenerated. The key to being the favorite country of the global economy used to be executing the most comprehensive liberalization the fastest, but it's not like that anymore. All the favorite countries of this period apply, one after another, capital and exchange rate controls. First there was Brazil, but I could ignore that by saying 'the leftist Lula was more skilled than rightist Erdoğan'. 'What can I do? The man is more likeable, more skilled and more prepared.' But around June 19, first South Korea, then a couple of days later, Indonesia followed the same path. How? The first time something happens is a blip; the second is a coincidence; the third makes a trend. Can it be said, for this matter, that there is a trend? Needless to say these are all G20 member countries. Let's make another point out of this: Is it a coincidence that capital controls have started to being concentrated on, in all G20 member developing countries? And what does it mean that these decisions are being made right before the summit? What is it that we fail to understand? First, please admit to yourselves that the trend is a little stranger than before, and I'll start telling you what I see, as much as I can. The ones, who don't think that what is going on is interesting, don't need to read the rest. I'll at least save you the trouble.

What the new-normal means capital flows-wise is this: The fund flows to countries like us might seem to have been decreased as a sum, but their effect has not. Fund flows are now directed to a smaller number of countries. What is the result of the fund flows having become more selective? Since the reduced fund flows are directed to a smaller number of countries, the amount of fund flows in fact not decreased for those countries. While it decreases at global scale, it points to an increase, for the favorite countries of the new-normal. What is the result? When the few countries which enjoy a successful performance and a paced recovery are concerned, the foreign fund inflows cause a punitive-corruptive effect. Currency in these few successful countries appreciates rapidly. Thus, export performance of the country is affected negatively. The recovery performance of the country is affected negatively from the appreciation of currency.

Nowadays, the ones wondering who the successful and favorite countries of this period are just need to have a look at the countries aiming at capital controls. Successful countries of today are not liberalizing, but ensuring capital controls. The capital-currency control systems which until yesterday were illicit are today legitimate. What is this, if not a change? This is exactly what the Financial Stability Report of the IMF that we recently announced you says: 'The globe is going through an asymmetrical recovery process. Though the liquidity has decreased, the first ones to recover can be access it first.' So, we had to be prepared to sudden currency appreciations, and that is what's being done, these days.

If the precautions that were once seen as illicit have become legitimate today; if Turkish lira is also appreciating; if Turkey is a G20 member country going to the same meeting and if the name 'Istanbul' is among the possible options for the next meeting, then what does Turkey lack that these afore mentioned countries have? Here, this is the exact question that we need to think about. I decided not to give you multiple choice answers, today. But I promise you, I will soon clarify this matter, from my point of view.

The world is different today, than it used to be. We need to understand the change.

This commentary was published in Referans daily on 26.06.2010