Turkey's EU accession hangs in the balance, following the French and Dutch ‘no' to the EU constitutional treaty. Although the referenda were not about EU enlargement, opposition to Turkish membership played a role in the no-campaigns of both countries. Other factors that may lead to delays in Turkey's accession timetable include early elections in Germany, the Cyprus problem and growing fears in Western Europe of low-wage competition. Some critics argue that the start of Turkish accession negotiations, scheduled for October 2005, should be postponed.

Against this uncertain background, panel of experts from Germany, the UK and Turkey will analyze and debate the arguments in favor and against Turkish membership. The event is organized by Berliner Forum Zukunft which is an initiative of Deutschen Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (DGAP). Participants will ask how Turkey's membership would change the EU; what impact accession (or its postponement) would have on Turkey's development; how quickly Turkey could get ready to join the Union; and whether the ‘old' EU can compete with Turkey's fast-growing and youthful economy.

PROGRAM SCHEDULE

Joint seminar of German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and the Centre for European Reform (CER) Turkey's EU accession - threat or opportunity for Europe? 16:20 President Welcome address by Fritjof v. Nordenskjöld, Vice Panel I: The economics of Turkish accession 16:30-17:45 Katinka Barysch, Chief Economist, Centre for European Reform (CER), London Dr. Joachim Volz, Senior Economist, Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin < font>Director, Economic Policy Research Institute (TEPAV), Ankara Chair: Charles Grant, Director, CER, London 17:45-18:15 Refreshments Panel II: The politics of Turkish accession 18:15-19:30 Dr. Heinz Kramer, Head of research EU external relations, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), Berlin Prof. Dr. Soli Ozel, Professor at Bilgi University and columnist for the Sabah daily, Istanbul Karl-Theodor Freiherr zu Guttenberg, Member of parliament for the CSU, Berlin Chair: Prof. Dr. Eberhard Sandschneider, Otto-Wolff-Director of DGAP Research Institute, Berlin The conference will take place in English and German with simultaneous translation..